Portfolio Update

July 2026

Global equity markets have advanced steadily through the first half of 2026, with most major indices posting positive returns year-to-date, despite an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty. As of June 30th, the S&P 500 returned 14.1%, the S&P/TSX 11.2%, the MSCI ACWI 15.2%, the MSCI EAFE 13.3%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets 28.2% year-to-date in Canadian dollars.

The global economy has remained durable and we expect economic momentum to persist. As outlined in our Q3 Economic and Capital Markets Outlook, our base case calls for global real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026. This is supported by solid U.S. consumer spending and business investment, though growth trends vary considerably across regions. We continue to favour an active investment approach that emphasizes price discipline, diversification, and careful stock and bond selection. The recent wave of high-profile IPOs led by SpaceX’s record-breaking market debut, reinforces the importance of this discipline.

The SpaceX Race

On June 12th, SpaceX made its public market debut in what became the largest initial public offering in history at $135 per share. The IPO raised a record $75 billion, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion, a record amount for an initial offering. SpaceX has established itself as a leader in the commercial space industry through its reusable launch technology and expanding Starlink satellite network. We recognize the company’s strong competitive position and impressive operational execution. However, our investment process requires not only high-quality businesses but also valuations that provide an attractive margin of safety.

Recent market transactions have valued SpaceX at approximately $2 trillion USD as of July 2026, placing it in a league comparable to Microsoft, one of our core technology holdings. While both companies are recognized as industry leaders, their financial profiles differ substantially. Microsoft’s 2026 revenue is estimated at approximately $329.47 billion USD, along with significant free cash flow and consistently high returns on capital, and its shares trade at an EV/estimated EBITDA multiple of 14.40x. By comparison, SpaceX’s 2026 revenue is estimated at only a fraction of that – approximately $38.85 billion USD – yet it trades at an EV/estimated EBITDA multiple of roughly 120.5x[1].

It is important to distinguish between enthusiasm for a business and confidence in its share price, as the two are not the same thing. SpaceX’s current valuation implies a level of future profitability that has yet to be demonstrated, resting on businesses that remain either early-stage or speculative in nature. This is not a rejection of long-dated growth stories as a category; rather, it reflects our view that conviction in such outcomes should be earned progressively, through demonstrated execution and sound underlying economics, rather than extended years in advance on the basis of narrative alone. Consistent with our long-standing approach, we continue to seek high-quality businesses priced at or below our estimate of intrinsic value, where that value is underpinned by sustainable growth and demonstrated earnings power.

Concluding Thoughts

Elevated valuations, record-breaking IPOs, and robust investor sentiment are hallmarks of a market that is pricing in a great deal of optimism. We remain focused on owning quality businesses at valuations supported by their underlying fundamentals. By maintaining a defensively positioned portfolio, we believe we are well-positioned to navigate evolving conditions while remaining focused on long-term value creation.

 

[1] Bloomberg consensus estimates

The information and opinions expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only, are subject to change and are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Any companies mentioned herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered to be a recommendation to buy or sell. It should not be assumed that an investment in these companies was or would be profitable. Unless otherwise indicated, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate at the time it is prepared, Letko, Brosseau & Associates Inc. cannot give any assurance that it is accurate, complete and current at all times.
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