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May 2026
Global equity markets advanced in April, with major indices returning to positive territory despite an environment characterized by volatility and persistent geopolitical tensions. As of April 30th, the S&P 500 returned 4.4% (total return in Canadian dollars), the MSCI ACWI 5.5%, the MSCI EAFE 4.5%, the MSCI Emerging Markets 15.6%, and the S&P/TSX 5.8% year-to-date.
As referenced in our recent Economic Outlook, the U.S./Israel-Iran war and the potential of a prolonged energy crisis have led to highly uncertain economic consequences. Our base case is for world real GDP to advance by 3.0% in 2026, compared to 3.3% in 2025, although recent geopolitical developments have increased downside risks to global growth.
Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on high-quality businesses trading at attractive valuations. Maintaining valuation discipline and liquidity remains central to our approach, supporting our aim to allocate capital prudently while preserving the flexibility to act decisively when market volatility creates compelling opportunities.
As noted in last month’s edition of our Portfolio Update, we recently initiated a position in Microsoft, and have since added Constellation Software, reflecting our continued flexibility to capitalize on market dislocations and redeploy capital into high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages when valuations become more compelling.
Constellation Software is a leading provider of mission-critical software with a strong history of disciplined growth and long-term value creation. The company has an impressive track record of successfully acquiring and operating niche software businesses with recurring revenues and strong customer retention. Investor concerns around the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and uncertainty surrounding long-term leadership succession have weighed on the share price, creating an opportunity to own a dominant player in vertical market software at a valuation of approximately 15.5x forward earnings, as of end of April. This represents a meaningful discount to the company’s 5-year average P/E of 27.8x. With a disciplined acquisition strategy, consistent organic growth and strong cash flow generation, we believe Constellation remains well positioned to compound capital over the long term and continue its track record of value creation for shareholders.
On the fixed income side, our strategy remains largely unchanged. We continue to focus on capital preservation by minimizing risk in our bond holdings through an emphasis on credit quality and a continued avoidance of long-duration securities, which we believe remain vulnerable to inflationary pressures. Since early 2025, we have modestly extended portfolio duration from approximately 4.0 years to roughly 4.5 years, reflecting a measured response to evolving market conditions rather than a shift in overall strategy. At this stage, we do not advocate any major changes in asset allocation beyond the adjustments already made.
The current environment underscores the importance of patience, discipline, and a long-term perspective. While geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty may contribute to ongoing market volatility, such periods can create opportunities to add to high-quality businesses when valuations become more compelling. By balancing capital preservation with selective investment opportunities, we believe portfolios remain well-positioned to navigate uncertainty and create value over time.
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