{"id":14006,"date":"2026-07-01T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/publications\/perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t3-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T10:56:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T14:56:53","slug":"perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t3-2026","status":"publish","type":"publications","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/publications\/perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t3-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers \u2013 T3 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-column-wrap{align-content:start;}:where(.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-column-wrap) > .wp-block-kadence-column{justify-content:start;}.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-column-wrap{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);row-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 1fr);}.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-layout-overlay{opacity:0.30;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 1fr);}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 1fr);}}<\/style><div class=\"kb-row-layout-wrap kb-row-layout-id13614_ddf0b6-8a alignnone wp-block-kadence-rowlayout\"><div class=\"kt-row-column-wrap kt-has-1-columns kt-row-layout-equal kt-tab-layout-inherit kt-mobile-layout-row kt-row-valign-top\">\n<style>.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_23d35e-a2\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list feature-list\">\n<li>Bien que le conflit au Moyen-Orient ajoute une part d\u2019incertitude \u00e0 nos pr\u00e9visions de croissance \u00e9conomique, notre sc\u00e9nario de base pr\u00e9voit que le PIB r\u00e9el mondial progressera de 3,0 % en 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La solidit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses de consommation et des investissements des entreprises soutient des perspectives constructives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le PIB r\u00e9el des \u00c9tats-Unis enregistrera une croissance d\u2019environ 2 % en 2026. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique reste faible au Canada, mais une politique mon\u00e9taire et budg\u00e9taire accommodante contribuera \u00e0 soutenir la croissance. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la progression du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada fr\u00f4lera 1,0 % en 2026. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019activit\u00e9 est en demi-teinte dans la zone euro, o\u00f9 des d\u00e9penses publiques robustes devraient n\u00e9anmoins contribuer \u00e0 ancrer la croissance r\u00e9gionale en territoire positif. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el de la zone euro s\u2019\u00e9tablira autour de 0,5 % en 2026. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La dynamique s\u2019est essouffl\u00e9e en Chine apr\u00e8s un d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e solide. Les politiques de soutien d\u00e9termineront en fin de compte si la Chine peut atteindre une croissance conforme \u00e0 l\u2019objectif gouvernemental de 4,5 % \u00e0 5,0 % en 2026.Momentum has waned in China after a strong start to the year. Policy support will ultimately determine whether China can achieve growth in line with the government\u2019s target of 4.5-5.0% in 2026. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les tendances de croissance des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents divergent de plus en plus, mais des ralentissements propres \u00e0 certains pays sont peu susceptibles de faire d\u00e9railler l\u2019activit\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9rale. Par cons\u00e9quent, le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance du PIB r\u00e9el des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents de 3,9 % en 2026. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les valorisations boursi\u00e8res sont \u00e9lev\u00e9es et les pr\u00e9visions de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices demeurent ambitieuses. Dans ce contexte, nous restons d\u2019avis que la strat\u00e9gie la mieux adapt\u00e9e consiste en une approche active qui privil\u00e9gie la sensibilit\u00e9 aux cours, la diversification et une s\u00e9lection attentive des actions et des obligations. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_f4de84-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_f4de84-94\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_70f461-87\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_70f461-87\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_70f461-87\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_70f461-87 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_70f461-87\">R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1c2a47-92\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale a remarquablement bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de chocs douaniers en 2025 et au d\u00e9clenchement de la guerre opposant les \u00c9tats-Unis et Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 l\u2019Iran en 2026. De fait, les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique laissent entrevoir une r\u00e9silience persistante cette ann\u00e9e, plut\u00f4t qu\u2019un ralentissement brutal. Bien que le conflit au Moyen-Orient complique les perspectives de croissance et d\u2019inflation, ses r\u00e9percussions varient consid\u00e9rablement d\u2019un pays \u00e0 l\u2019autre.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_38338b-3d\">L\u2019offre restreinte de p\u00e9trole a entra\u00een\u00e9 une r\u00e9duction de la demande dans certaines zones du monde en d\u00e9veloppement. Cependant, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, l\u2019utilisation des stocks a nettement att\u00e9nu\u00e9 ses effets sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique mondiale, tout comme les efforts de r\u00e9duction et d\u2019efficacit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques et la transition vers d\u2019autres sources d\u2019\u00e9nergie. Ensemble, ces facteurs jouent un r\u00f4le central dans le r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage de l\u2019offre et de la demande mondiales de produits \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_ddbe35-46\">Au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, une s\u00e9rie de vecteurs positifs continue de soutenir les perspectives \u00e9conomiques. Les investissements massifs dans l\u2019IA donnent un coup de pouce tangible au PIB, bien que leurs avantages en mati\u00e8re de productivit\u00e9 restent encore timides et in\u00e9gaux. La forte demande pour l\u2019IA a \u00e9galement propuls\u00e9 les rendements boursiers mondiaux, contribuant \u00e0 maintenir des effets de richesse positifs \u2013 un pilier des d\u00e9penses de consommation.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9fc825-b3\">Parall\u00e8lement, la politique budg\u00e9taire reste accommodante dans la plupart des grandes \u00e9conomies. Dans l\u2019ensemble, les d\u00e9penses publiques devraient s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer et nous pr\u00e9voyons qu\u2019une impulsion budg\u00e9taire importante ajoutera pr\u00e8s d\u2019un point de pourcentage \u00e0 la croissance des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir. Sur le plan mon\u00e9taire, les effets d\u00e9cal\u00e9s des cycles intensifs de baisse des taux de l\u2019an dernier devraient \u00e9galement contribuer \u00e0 soutenir l\u2019activit\u00e9.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8d9e3d-2e\">Les r\u00e9cents arrangements entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran pourraient permettre la r\u00e9ouverture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et le d\u00e9but d\u2019une normalisation des march\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9nergie au cours des prochains mois. En cons\u00e9quence, nous pr\u00e9voyons la persistance de la dynamique de croissance mondiale et n\u2019excluons pas la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle surprise \u00e0 la hausse de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Notre sc\u00e9nario de base pr\u00e9voit que le PIB r\u00e9el mondial progressera d\u2019environ 3,0 % en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cad020-0a\">Cependant, cette stabilit\u00e9 pr\u00e9vue de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique ne doit pas faire oublier la persistance de la d\u00e9connexion marqu\u00e9e que nous d\u00e9celons entre les fondamentaux et les attentes des investisseurs. Les valorisations boursi\u00e8res am\u00e9ricaines sont redevenues \u00e9lev\u00e9es et les pr\u00e9visions de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sont ambitieuses. Dans ce contexte, les fluctuations \u00e0 la baisse de la confiance repr\u00e9sentent le plus grand risque pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s financiers. Nous restons d\u2019avis que la strat\u00e9gie la mieux adapt\u00e9e \u00e0 la conjoncture consiste en une approche active qui privil\u00e9gie la sensibilit\u00e9 aux cours, la diversification et une s\u00e9lection attentive des actions et des obligations.   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_bf6e8c-35\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d8b48-9d\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine continue de surperformer<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fe1fd7-e9\">La croissance am\u00e9ricaine s\u2019est affermie en d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e. Le PIB r\u00e9el a progress\u00e9 de 0,5 % en glissement trimestriel au T1, contre 0,1 % au T4 de 2025. Les d\u00e9penses de consommation ont affich\u00e9 une hausse de 0,1 %, tandis que les investissements des entreprises ont augment\u00e9 de 1,9 %. De leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, les d\u00e9penses publiques ont fortement rebondi pour atteindre 1,1 %, contre -1,4 % au trimestre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Les exportations nettes ont baiss\u00e9 de 3,4 %, en partie \u00e0 cause d\u2019une demande int\u00e9rieure robuste puisque les importations ont cr\u00fb de 2,8 %.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8417b2-91\">Les d\u00e9penses des m\u00e9nages \u2013 principal moteur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine \u2013 devraient demeurer r\u00e9silientes. Le march\u00e9 du travail am\u00e9ricain a retrouv\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9lan apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode de croissance plus lente de l\u2019emploi. Le nombre d\u2019emplois a augment\u00e9 de 92 000 par mois en moyenne durant les six premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, en hausse par rapport \u00e0 une moyenne de 10 000 en 2025. Durant la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, le taux de ch\u00f4mage est rest\u00e9 stable et a fr\u00f4l\u00e9 un creux historique \u00e0 4,3 %.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b863ab-4e\">Les remboursements d\u2019imp\u00f4t li\u00e9s \u00e0 la \u00ab grande et belle loi \u00bb amortissent l\u2019effet de la hausse du co\u00fbt de la vie sur le budget des m\u00e9nages. De fait, les remboursements totaux ont augment\u00e9 d\u2019environ 50 milliards de dollars jusqu\u2019\u00e0 maintenant. Nous notons \u00e9galement que la valeur nette du patrimoine priv\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain a grimp\u00e9 de 7,9 % au T1 par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, facteur contribuant positivement aux d\u00e9penses de consommation. Depuis 2023, le bilan des m\u00e9nages a progress\u00e9 de 37 000 milliards de dollars, montant sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la consommation totale annuelle (Graphique 1).   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5d0048-ef\">Les perspectives d\u2019investissement des entreprises am\u00e9ricaines sont encourageantes. Les d\u00e9penses en capital des fournisseurs hyperscalaires en IA devraient demeurer un pilier essentiel de la demande int\u00e9rieure. Nos propres estimations laissent entrevoir plus de 5 000 milliards de dollars d\u2019investissements li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA entre 2026 et 2031, dont 650 milliards de dollars (2 % du PIB am\u00e9ricain) allou\u00e9s pour la seule ann\u00e9e en cours.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_12ee22-6b\">En mettant ces facteurs en balance avec les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et l\u2019incertitude commerciale, nous concluons que les \u00c9tats-Unis sont bien plac\u00e9s pour maintenir une croissance stable. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le PIB r\u00e9el des \u00c9tats-Unis enregistrera une croissance d\u2019environ 2,0 % en 2026, un sommet parmi les grandes \u00e9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_aab926-53{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_aab926-53 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_aab926-53\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c249f-ca\">\u00c9volution de l\u2019actif des m\u00e9nages par rapport aux d\u00e9penses de consommation aux \u00c9tats-Unis (000 milliards $ US)<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_2ff0d2-6b\">Graphique 1<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image13614_2643e2-98 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image13614_2643e2-98 size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1815\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-13617\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1.png 1815w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1-625x273.png 625w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1-843x368.png 843w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1-480x209.png 480w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart1-768x335.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1815px) 100vw, 1815px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6a6cf5-ac\">Note : Les \u00ab actions et fonds communs \u00bb incluent les actions de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s et autres titres de participation. Les \u00ab autres actifs \u00bb incluent les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts, pr\u00eats et actifs divers. L\u2019actif des m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve actuellement \u00e0 199 000 milliards de dollars. Source : R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine, calculs de Letko Brosseau   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_ddb5a6-bd\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b4a510-f5\">Le Canada en bonne posture pour renouer avec la croissance<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_fed302-b3\">Au Canada, le PIB r\u00e9el a marginalement diminu\u00e9 de 0,04 % en glissement trimestriel au T1, apr\u00e8s une contraction de 0,2 % au trimestre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Par d\u00e9finition, cela a marqu\u00e9 le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession technique. Tout en reconnaissant cet essoufflement de la dynamique \u00e9conomique, nous estimons que ce recul r\u00e9cent refl\u00e8te des facteurs ponctuels et exceptionnels plut\u00f4t qu\u2019une faiblesse fondamentale.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4ec67d-b4\">Les \u00e9changes commerciaux nets ont constitu\u00e9 un frein important \u00e0 la croissance du premier trimestre. Les exportations ont baiss\u00e9 de 0,1 % d\u2019un trimestre \u00e0 l\u2019autre, tandis que les importations ont bondi de 2,9 %, tir\u00e9es en grande partie par une hausse des achats d\u2019or. \u00c0 l\u2019exclusion du commerce ext\u00e9rieur, l\u2019\u00e9conomie aurait progress\u00e9 de 0,9 % durant la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode. Sur le plan int\u00e9rieur, la solidit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses des m\u00e9nages (+0,4 %) a plus que contrebalanc\u00e9 la contraction des d\u00e9penses publiques (-0,6 %) et des investissements des entreprises (-0,8 %).   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_be2320-61\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_be2320-61\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_be2320-61\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_be2320-61 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_be2320-61\">Nous pensons que les conditions sont r\u00e9unies pour maintenir la consommation \u00e0 des niveaux satisfaisants. Alors que la valeur nette des m\u00e9nages a atteint un record de 18 900 milliards de dollars CA \u00e0 la fin du T1 et que les march\u00e9s boursiers continuent de progresser, nous pr\u00e9voyons que les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenus plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s continueront de contribuer positivement aux d\u00e9penses de consommation. Parall\u00e8lement, les gains salariaux r\u00e9els renforcent les perspectives d\u2019ensemble de la consommation. La croissance des salaires horaires moyens a oscill\u00e9 autour de 3-4 % en glissement annuel jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, et dans l\u2019ensemble, elle a devanc\u00e9 l\u2019inflation globale (2-3 %).   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_261730-e6\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_261730-e6\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_261730-e6\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_261730-e6 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_261730-e6\">Sur le plan budg\u00e9taire, la baisse des d\u00e9penses f\u00e9d\u00e9rales observ\u00e9e au T1 s\u2019explique en grande partie par une r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense par rapport aux niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s du T4 2025. Depuis lors, une s\u00e9rie d\u2019annonces, comme la bonification de 12 milliards de dollars CA des prestations li\u00e9es \u00e0 la TPS, les all\u00e9gements temporaires de la taxe d\u2019accise sur les carburants et un programme de financement de 1,5 milliard de dollars pour les secteurs touch\u00e9s par des droits de douane, confirment que les d\u00e9cideurs politiques restent d\u00e9termin\u00e9s \u00e0 soutenir l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e93877-f9\">En juin, la Banque du Canada a maintenu son taux directeur \u00e0 2,25 %, marquant ainsi une troisi\u00e8me pause cons\u00e9cutive \u00e0 ce niveau accommodant. L\u2019IPC canadien a subi des pressions \u00e0 la hausse en raison de l\u2019augmentation des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, le chiffre de mai s\u2019\u00e9tablissant \u00e0 3,2 %, contre 2,3 % en janvier. Cependant, le taux d\u2019inflation sous-jacente (hors alimentation et \u00e9nergie) demeure mod\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e0 1,7 %. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que le contexte mon\u00e9taire canadien restera mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment expansionniste.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d3e6df-36\">L\u2019incertitude commerciale entourant la ren\u00e9gociation de l\u2019ACEUM complique les perspectives du Canada. N\u00e9anmoins, \u00e0 notre avis, l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne se dirige vers une autre ann\u00e9e de croissance modeste, mais positive. L\u2019activit\u00e9 est soutenue par des d\u00e9penses de consommation r\u00e9silientes et des politiques budg\u00e9taires et mon\u00e9taires favorables. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la progression du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada fr\u00f4lera 1,0 % en 2026.   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_fe0e08-a4\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d796e1-b4\">Perspectives difficiles pour la zone euro<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_996c4b-32\">Le PIB r\u00e9el de la zone euro s\u2019est contract\u00e9 de 0,2 % au T1 par rapport au trimestre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. L\u2019Espagne a conserv\u00e9 la palme de la croissance parmi les principales \u00e9conomies de la r\u00e9gion, avec une expansion de 0,6 % d\u2019un trimestre \u00e0 l\u2019autre. L\u2019Allemagne et l\u2019Italie ont chacune enregistr\u00e9 une croissance de 0,3 % sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, tandis que la production a recul\u00e9 de 0,1 % en France. Les tensions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques pourraient exacerber les faiblesses d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9sentes dans l\u2019ensemble de la r\u00e9gion.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_97cc52-87\">La recrudescence de l\u2019inflation et la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration des perspectives de croissance placent la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) face \u00e0 un arbitrage complexe. Des mesures r\u00e9centes font penser que les d\u00e9cideurs sont davantage enclins \u00e0 tol\u00e9rer un ralentissement de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique plut\u00f4t qu\u2019un enracinement des pressions inflationnistes. Conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 cet objectif, la BCE a relev\u00e9 son taux directeur de 25 points de base pour le porter \u00e0 2,25 % en juin.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_1a07b3-06\">\u00c0 l\u2019avenir, le durcissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire p\u00e8sera probablement sur les d\u00e9penses de consommation de la zone euro, o\u00f9 les m\u00e9nages affrontent d\u00e9j\u00e0 un march\u00e9 du travail moins dynamique, une mod\u00e9ration de la croissance des salaires et une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Conjugu\u00e9s \u00e0 des conditions financi\u00e8res plus strictes, ces facteurs annoncent un essoufflement progressif de la demande int\u00e9rieure au cours des prochains trimestres. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_d5f30f-2c\">Fait encourageant, l\u2019\u00e9conomie de la zone euro dispose d\u2019un contrepoids notable face aux d\u00e9fis actuels. La relance budg\u00e9taire allemande, sous la forme d\u2019une hausse des d\u00e9penses d\u2019infrastructure et de d\u00e9fense, \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 1 % du PIB cette ann\u00e9e. Dans l\u2019ensemble, environ la moiti\u00e9 des pays de la zone euro pr\u00e9voient des d\u00e9penses plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es et des d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires plus importants, contribuant ainsi \u00e0 maintenir la croissance r\u00e9gionale en territoire positif.<br\/>L\u2019\u00e9conomie de la zone euro est en passe de conna\u00eetre un ralentissement mod\u00e9r\u00e9, du fait de sa d\u00e9pendance envers l\u2019\u00e9nergie import\u00e9e et de son casse-t\u00eate inflationniste. Nous pr\u00e9voyons que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el s\u2019\u00e9tablira autour de 0,5 % en 2026.   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_ce8e0c-a3\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_385153-dc\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_385153-dc\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_385153-dc\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_385153-dc wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_385153-dc\">Les pressions int\u00e9rieures s\u2019accentuent en Chine<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_879578-cc\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_879578-cc\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_879578-cc\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_879578-cc wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_879578-cc\">Le PIB r\u00e9el de la Chine a progress\u00e9 de 5,0 % en glissement annuel au T1. Depuis lors, bien que les exportations et la production industrielle aient continu\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre vigoureusement, de vastes pans de l\u2019\u00e9conomie int\u00e9rieure restent atones. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5e4dba-d4\">Les exportations totales ont bondi de 19,4 % sur un an en mai. La valeur nominale des exportations chinoises a d\u00e9j\u00e0 franchi la barre des 1 700 milliards de dollars au cours des cinq premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, et le commerce ext\u00e9rieur est bien parti pour apporter de nouveau une contribution significative \u00e0 l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Vu les liens \u00e9troits qui existent entre ce commerce et le complexe industriel chinois, l\u2019activit\u00e9 manufacturi\u00e8re a bien tenu jusqu\u2019\u00e0 maintenant. La production industrielle a progress\u00e9 de 4,5 % sur un an en mai.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_c248a8-7f\">En revanche, les d\u00e9penses de consommation sont rest\u00e9es atones. Les ventes au d\u00e9tail n\u2019ont augment\u00e9 que de 1,4 % en glissement annuel au cours des cinq premiers mois de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. La faiblesse de la demande des m\u00e9nages refl\u00e8te, du moins en partie, des effets de base li\u00e9s au programme de subventions \u00e0 la consommation de 300 milliards de RMB mis en place l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re. Les d\u00e9penses en automobiles, appareils \u00e9lectrom\u00e9nagers et mat\u00e9riel de t\u00e9l\u00e9communication \u2013 qui \u00e9taient toutes au centre des subventions de 2025 \u2013 ont recul\u00e9 en rythme annuel, tirant ainsi l\u2019ensemble des ventes au d\u00e9tail vers le bas (Graphique 2). Parall\u00e8lement, l\u2019aide gouvernementale ciblant les d\u00e9penses dans le secteur des services n\u2019a eu qu\u2019un effet limit\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9a0705-96\">En ce qui concerne l\u2019investissement, le march\u00e9 immobilier continue de peser sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise. Les investissements en immobilisations ont chut\u00e9 de 4,1 % sur un an au cours de la p\u00e9riode de janvier \u00e0 mai, dans un contexte de contraction marqu\u00e9e de 16,2 % des investissements immobiliers. Les d\u00e9penses en infrastructures (+0,6 %) et les investissements dans le secteur manufacturier ( 0,4 %) ont ralenti de mani\u00e8re significative en avril et mai, apr\u00e8s un rebond stimul\u00e9 par les mesures de relance au premier trimestre. Les tendances r\u00e9centes font entrevoir une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration probable de la mise en \u0153uvre des politiques de stabilisation des investissements; l\u2019engagement du gouvernement de consacrer 7 000 milliards de RMB (environ 3,4 % du PIB) aux d\u00e9penses d\u2019infrastructure envoie un signal encourageant \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_267e31-58\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_267e31-58\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_267e31-58\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_267e31-58 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_267e31-58\">Les politiques de soutien d\u00e9termineront en fin de compte si la demande int\u00e9rieure repart et, par cons\u00e9quent, si la Chine peut atteindre une croissance conforme \u00e0 l\u2019objectif gouvernemental de 4,5 % \u00e0 5,0 % en 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_d3e324-10 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_d3e324-10\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_aae2dd-1f\">Chine : Contribution des produits de reprise \u00e0 la croissance des ventes au d\u00e9tail<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_b983f4-76\">Graphique 2<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image13614_e2738d-6e .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image13614_e2738d-6e size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1815\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-13620\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2.png 1815w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2-625x273.png 625w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2-843x368.png 843w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2-480x209.png 480w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart2-768x335.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1815px) 100vw, 1815px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_4babdf-ce\">Source : Bureau national des statistiques de Chine, LetkoBrosseau.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_83a6bd-1e\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_5c4513-64\">Perspectives in\u00e9gales dans les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_277710-11\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_277710-11\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_277710-11\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_277710-11 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_277710-11\">En <strong>Inde<\/strong>, le PIB r\u00e9el a progress\u00e9 de 7,8 % en glissement annuel au T1. Les pressions cr\u00e9\u00e9es par la hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole constituent \u00e9videmment un obstacle, mais vu la forte croissance de base de l\u2019Inde avant le choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, seule une l\u00e9g\u00e8re d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration est pr\u00e9vue. Le FMI pr\u00e9voit une progression du PIB r\u00e9el indien de 6,5 % en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_52ff3f-4f\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie du <strong>Mexique <\/strong>n\u2019a cr\u00fb que de 0,2 % en chiffres r\u00e9els annuels au T1. Les droits de douane am\u00e9ricains et la hausse des co\u00fbts de l\u2019\u00e9nergie freinent la croissance. Cependant, l\u2019assouplissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire, le ch\u00f4mage historiquement bas et une progression solide des salaires r\u00e9els devraient maintenir l\u2019activit\u00e9 en territoire positif. Dans l\u2019ensemble, l\u2019\u00e9conomie du pays devrait cro\u00eetre de 1,6 % en 2026 selon les estimations du FMI. Ailleurs en Am\u00e9rique latine, les perspectives de croissance se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es au <strong>Br\u00e9sil<\/strong>, qui profite de son statut d\u2019exportateur d\u2019\u00e9nergie. Le FMI projette une progression du PIB r\u00e9el de 1,9 % en 2026, soit une r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la hausse de 0,3 % par rapport \u00e0 ses pr\u00e9visions de janvier.     <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f5d3d4-08\">Aux <strong>Philippines<\/strong>, l\u2019activit\u00e9 a ralenti pour toucher un creux pluriannuel au T1, la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el ayant d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e0 2,8 % en chiffres annuels r\u00e9els. La banque centrale relevant ses taux directeurs pour contrer la flamb\u00e9e de l\u2019inflation, la croissance r\u00e9elle n\u2019atteindra sans doute pas la fourchette cible de 5 % \u00e0 6 % fix\u00e9e par le gouvernement cette ann\u00e9e. De m\u00eame, en <strong>Indon\u00e9sie<\/strong>, la banque centrale a \u00e9t\u00e9 contrainte de revenir sur certaines de ses r\u00e9centes baisses de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour soutenir sa monnaie en repli et ma\u00eetriser l\u2019inflation. Les pr\u00e9visions actuelles du FMI, qui tablent sur un PIB r\u00e9el de 5 %, pourraient bient\u00f4t \u00eatre r\u00e9vis\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_54b512-99\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_54b512-99\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_54b512-99\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_54b512-99 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_54b512-99\">Les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents pr\u00e9sentent des tendances de croissance de plus en plus divergentes. Tandis que les exportateurs de p\u00e9trole et de gaz devraient b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de balances des paiements plus solides et de revenus budg\u00e9taires plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, l\u2019inverse est vrai pour les importateurs nets d\u2019\u00e9nergie, en particulier en Asie du Sud-Est. N\u00e9anmoins, les conditions d\u00e9favorables sont limit\u00e9es : les \u00e9conomies de l\u2019ASEAN ne repr\u00e9sentent que 8,6 % du PIB r\u00e9el des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, et les ralentissements propres \u00e0 certains pays sont peu susceptibles de faire d\u00e9railler la croissance g\u00e9n\u00e9rale. Par cons\u00e9quent, le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance du PIB r\u00e9el des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents de 3,9 % en 2026.    <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_21ac2f-70\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_88020f-59\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_88020f-59\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_88020f-59\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_88020f-59 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_88020f-59\">L\u2019essor de la demande d\u2019IA propulse les march\u00e9s \u00e0 des sommets historiques<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_f0f016-75\">Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont atteint des sommets historiques au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre. Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, le S&amp;P 500 a affich\u00e9 un rendement global de 14,1 % (en dollars canadiens), tandis que les indices S&amp;P\/TSX (11,2 %), MSCI Monde tous pays (15,1 %) et MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents (28,2 %) ont \u00e9galement cl\u00f4tur\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode en territoire positif. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Attribuable en partie \u00e0 l\u2019accord de cessez-le-feu am\u00e9ricano-iranien, la bonne performance boursi\u00e8re du trimestre provient surtout du rendement des entreprises li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA. En effet, les dix plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s du S&amp;P 500 \u2013 dont huit sont li\u00e9es \u00e0 la technologie \u2013 ont g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 la grande majorit\u00e9 des gains de l\u2019indice \u00e0 ce jour. Ensemble, elles repr\u00e9sentent une part remarquable de 41 % de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de l\u2019indice et leurs actions se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 36 fois le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice pr\u00e9visionnel moyen pond\u00e9r\u00e9. Cette combinaison de valorisations \u00e9lev\u00e9es et de faible diversification de l\u2019indice nous appara\u00eet comme une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 fondamentale en cas de revirement de la confiance des investisseurs.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_98d762-fc\">Des risques similaires se sont \u00e9galement d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s sur d\u2019autres march\u00e9s. Bien qu\u2019il comprenne 1 000 titres de 24 pays en d\u00e9veloppement, l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents doit ses rendements exceptionnels depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 un groupe restreint de fabricants de puces asiatiques. En effet, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Samsung Electronics et SK Hynix ont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 plus de 80 % des gains de l\u2019indice de janvier \u00e0 juin. Ce trio p\u00e8se d\u00e9sormais pour environ 30 % de l\u2019indice, tandis que Ta\u00efwan et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud constituent pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re totale du MSCI ME. Bien que ces entreprises et ces pays occupent une position cruciale dans le d\u00e9veloppement des infrastructures d\u2019IA actuellement en plein essor, il importe de rester attentif \u00e0 la concentration extraordinaire de l\u2019indice et \u00e0 la pr\u00e9valence croissante des tendances li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA dans toutes les cat\u00e9gories d\u2019actif.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_6b98d9-a3\">De plus, les pr\u00e9visions de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices excessivement optimistes demeurent \u00e0 nos yeux une autre source potentielle de volatilit\u00e9. Le consensus des pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9voit une hausse de 17,4 % d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action pour l\u2019indice MSCI Monde tous pays en 2026 (Tableau 1). Nous pensons que cet objectif pourrait se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler difficile \u00e0 atteindre, m\u00eame si l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique reste stable et que l\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique se dissipe. Advenant que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e9lev\u00e9s attendus par les investisseurs ne soient pas au rendez-vous ou que les indications prospectives s\u2019av\u00e8rent d\u00e9cevantes, les pr\u00e9occupations concernant la long\u00e9vit\u00e9 de l\u2019essor des d\u00e9penses li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA et des march\u00e9s boursiers pourraient refaire surface.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_18a92b-76 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_18a92b-76\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cf2833-2c\">Pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux<br\/>Croissance en glissement annuel du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action de l&rsquo;indice<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_73ea73-3f\">Tableau 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>R\u00e9alis\u00e9 2025<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Pr\u00e9visions 2026<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Pr\u00e9visions 2027<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Pr\u00e9visions 2028<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MSCI Monde tous pays<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>12.0%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>17.4%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>15.8%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>11.3%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong> MSCI Monde<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>11.8%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>12.8%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>14.2%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>11.2%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI \u00c9tats-Unis<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13.4%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15.5%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">16.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">12.9%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI Canada<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10.5%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">17.9%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6.1%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI Europe<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-1.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9.0%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">8.6%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">9.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI Pacifique ex Japon<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">-0.1%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">3.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI Japon<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">4.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6.5%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">14.5%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong> MSCI ME<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>11.9%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>44.1%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>23.5%<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>12.4%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI ME EMOA<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">16.7%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">18.2%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">11.0%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7.9%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI ME Am\u00e9rique latine<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">20.1%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">23.4%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5.9%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td> MSCI ME Asie<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10.0%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">50.8%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">26.9%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">13.4%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_424acc-53\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_424acc-53\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_424acc-53\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_424acc-53 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_424acc-53\">Note : Les valeurs des indices MSCI Canada, MSCI Europe et MSCI Japon sont exprim\u00e9es dans leurs devises locales respectives. Donn\u00e9es en date du 02\/07\/2026. Source : Bloomberg; Calcul de la croissance en glissement annuel des pr\u00e9visions de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices du consensus du march\u00e9 par LetkoBrosseau.  <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_e43734-d9\">De telles p\u00e9riodes font ressortir l\u2019importance d\u2019un cadre rigoureux de gestion des risques et d\u2019une approche d\u2019investissement fond\u00e9e sur des principes et bas\u00e9e sur la sensibilit\u00e9 au prix, la diversification et la s\u00e9lection judicieuse des actions. Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous jugeons que la valorisation de nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions demeure relativement int\u00e9ressante. Le fonds d\u2019actions mondiales de Letko Brosseau se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 14,2 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9visionnels (contre 19,1 fois pour l\u2019indice MSCI Monde tous pays) et le fonds d\u2019actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents de Letko Brosseau se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 11,6 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9visionnels (contre 12,7 fois pour l\u2019indice MSCI ME). De plus, nos placements offrent selon nous un fort potentiel de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e0 moyen et \u00e0 long terme, ce qui nous conforte dans notre d\u00e9cision de rester investis m\u00eame si la dynamique du march\u00e9 fait redouter de possibles exc\u00e8s.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_9d39ce-85\">Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, les derniers mois nous ont offert plusieurs possibilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9investir des liquidit\u00e9s dans des obligations. \u00c0 certaines occasions, nous avons effectu\u00e9 des achats conformes \u00e0 notre insistance sur la qualit\u00e9 du cr\u00e9dit, lorsque les rendements ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pouss\u00e9s \u00e0 la hausse par des craintes excessives d\u2019inflation et des anticipations de mont\u00e9e en fl\u00e8che des taux directeurs. En mars, par exemple, les march\u00e9s pr\u00e9voyaient plus de trois hausses de taux de la Banque du Canada pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir \u2013 attentes que nous jugions exag\u00e9r\u00e9es par rapport \u00e0 nos perspectives \u00e9conomiques. Depuis, ces attentes ont consid\u00e9rablement diminu\u00e9 et, \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle, les march\u00e9s n\u2019int\u00e8grent m\u00eame plus une seule hausse de taux compl\u00e8te de 25 points de base d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e (Graphique 3).   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_a0bd66-6d\">Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 du positionnement en duration du portefeuille, notre strat\u00e9gie demeure inchang\u00e9e. Nous estimons la juste valeur des obligations du gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 10 et 30 ans \u00e0 environ 4 % et 4,5 %, comparativement \u00e0 leurs taux actuels de 3,38 % et 3,77 % respectivement. Cela indique que les obligations canadiennes \u00e0 long terme sont encore ch\u00e8res. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous continuons de maintenir une duration inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de l\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. \u00c0 ce stade, nous ne pr\u00e9conisons pas de changements importants dans la r\u00e9partition g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de l\u2019actif.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_96a7eb-c2\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_37dca7-c4\">Nombre pr\u00e9vu de hausses\/baisses de 25 points de base de la Banque du Canada d\u2019ici la fin de 2026)<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_619f4f-7d\">Graphique 3<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image13614_a5e4e9-8f .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image13614_a5e4e9-8f size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1815\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-13623\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3.png 1815w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3-625x273.png 625w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3-843x368.png 843w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3-480x209.png 480w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fr-chart3-768x335.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1815px) 100vw, 1815px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_cb6587-78\">Note : D\u2019apr\u00e8s le march\u00e9 des swaps de taux au jour le jour (OIS), donn\u00e9es au 02\/07\/2026 Source : Bloomberg <br\/><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><style>.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13614_70ff95-d0\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 .kt-accordion-inner-wrap{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);row-gap:8px;}.kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 .kt-accordion-panel-inner{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);}.kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 > .kt-accordion-inner-wrap > .wp-block-kadence-pane > .kt-accordion-header-wrap > .kt-blocks-accordion-header{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-xxs, 0.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-xs, 1rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-xxs, 0.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-xs, 1rem);}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 .kt-accordion-inner-wrap{display:block;}.kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 .kt-accordion-inner-wrap .kt-accordion-pane:not(:first-child){margin-top:8px;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-accordion alignnone\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-wrap kt-accordion-id13614_239ba5-59 kt-accordion-has-2-panes kt-active-pane-0 kt-accordion-block kt-pane-header-alignment-left kt-accodion-icon-style-basic kt-accodion-icon-side-right\" style=\"max-width:none\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-inner-wrap\" data-allow-multiple-open=\"false\" data-start-open=\"none\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-pane kt-accordion-pane kt-accordion-pane-1 kt-pane13614_2db2fc-2f\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-header-wrap\"><button class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-header kt-acccordion-button-label-show\" type=\"button\"><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-title-wrap\"><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-title\">Mentions l\u00e9gales<\/span><\/span><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-icon-trigger\"><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"kt-accordion-panel kt-accordion-panel-hidden\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-panel-inner\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13614_8f20d4-47\">Dans ce texte, le \u00ab dollar \u00bb est le dollar US, sauf indication contraire.<br\/>Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mentionn\u00e9es sont \u00e0 titre indicatif uniquement et ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une recommandation d\u2019achat ou de vente. Il ne faut pas supposer qu\u2019un investissement dans ces entreprises \u00e9tait ou serait rentable. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<br\/>Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<br\/>Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<br\/>Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<br\/>Certaines informations contenues dans ce document constituent des \u00ab d\u00e9clarations prospectives \u00bb, qui peuvent \u00eatre identifi\u00e9es par l&rsquo;utilisation de termes prospectifs tels que \u00ab peut \u00bb, \u00ab sera \u00bb, \u00ab devrait \u00bb, \u00ab s&rsquo;attendre \u00e0 \u00bb, \u00ab anticiper \u00bb, \u00ab cibler \u00bb, \u00ab projeter \u00bb, \u00ab estimer \u00bb, \u00ab avoir l&rsquo;intention de \u00bb, \u00ab continuer \u00bb ou \u00ab croire \u00bb, ou la forme n\u00e9gative de ces termes, ou d&rsquo;autres variations de ces termes ou une terminologie comparable. Les d\u00e9clarations prospectives sont intrins\u00e8quement soumises, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, des incertitudes et des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et attendues, et d&rsquo;autres facteurs consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances, qui pourraient faire en sorte que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements, les r\u00e9sultats, les performances ou les perspectives r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent mat\u00e9riellement de ceux qui sont exprim\u00e9s ou sous-entendus dans ces d\u00e9clarations prospectives. Les lecteurs sont invit\u00e9s \u00e0 ne pas accorder une confiance excessive \u00e0 ces d\u00e9clarations pr\u00e9visionnelles.               Les informations MSCI sont fournies \u00ab telles quelles \u00bb et leur utilisateur assume l&rsquo;int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 leur utilisation. MSCI, chacune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es et toute autre personne impliqu\u00e9e ou li\u00e9e \u00e0 la compilation, au calcul ou \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d&rsquo;informations MSCI (collectivement, les \u00ab parties MSCI \u00bb) d\u00e9clinent express\u00e9ment toute garantie (y compris, notamment, toute garantie d&rsquo;originalit\u00e9, d&rsquo;exactitude et d&rsquo;exhaustivit\u00e9, respect des d\u00e9lais, non-contrefa\u00e7on, commercialisation et de convenance \u00e0 une fin particuli\u00e8re) en ce qui concerne ces informations. Sans limiter la port\u00e9e de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, en aucun cas une partie MSCI ne peut \u00eatre tenue responsable d\u2019un dommage direct, indirect, sp\u00e9cial, accessoire, punitif, cons\u00e9cutif (y compris, sans limitation, perte de profits) ou de tout autre dommage. (www.msci.com).   <br\/>L\u2019indice S&amp;P\/TSX est un produit de S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices LLC ou ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es (\u00ab SPDJI \u00bb) et de TSX Inc., utilis\u00e9 sous licence par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;sMD et S&amp;PMD sont des marques d\u00e9pos\u00e9es de Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC (\u00ab S&amp;P \u00bb), Dow JonesMD est une marque d\u00e9pos\u00e9e de Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (\u00ab Dow Jones \u00bb) et ces marques d\u00e9pos\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 conc\u00e9d\u00e9es sous licence par SPDJI et conc\u00e9d\u00e9es en sous-licence \u00e0 certaines fins par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associates Inc. TSXMD est une marque d\u00e9pos\u00e9e de TSX Inc., utilis\u00e9e sous licence par SPDJI et par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. Les produits de Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne sont pas commandit\u00e9s, approuv\u00e9s, vendus ou promus par SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&amp;P, leurs soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es respectives ou Bloomberg et aucune de ces parties ne font de d\u00e9clarations au sujet de la pertinence de r\u00e9aliser un placement dans ces produits et ne peuvent \u00eatre tenues responsables d\u2019erreurs, d\u2019omissions ou d\u2019interruptions touchant l\u2019indice S&amp;P\/TSX.<br\/>Bloomberg Finance L.P. Utilis\u00e9 avec la permission de Bloomberg Finance L.P.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R\u00e9sum\u00e9 L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale a remarquablement bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de chocs douaniers en 2025 et au d\u00e9clenchement&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","footnotes":""},"post-category":[93],"investment-stategy":[],"media-type":[99],"publication_type":[63],"suited-for":[84,85],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-14006","publications","type-publications","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"taxonomy_info":[],"featured_image_src_large":false,"author_info":{"display_name":"Nathan","author_link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/author\/nathan\/"},"comment_info":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/14006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publications"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/14006\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14028,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/14006\/revisions\/14028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post-category?post=14006"},{"taxonomy":"investment-stategy","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/investment-stategy?post=14006"},{"taxonomy":"media-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media-type?post=14006"},{"taxonomy":"publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type?post=14006"},{"taxonomy":"suited-for","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/suited-for?post=14006"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=14006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}