{"id":13941,"date":"2026-01-12T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/publications\/perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t1-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-22T15:21:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T19:21:12","slug":"perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t1-2026","status":"publish","type":"publications","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/publications\/perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t1-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers &#8211; T1 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_b63b69-a8\">Janvier 2026<\/p>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_a08e0b-94 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eccdfb-c1\">S\u00e9ance de questions avec nos \u00e9conomistes<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_27127b-d6\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale a continu\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre malgr\u00e9 une s\u00e9rie d\u2019obstacles majeurs ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_eac169-b5\">En 2022, la guerre entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine a mis en p\u00e9ril le commerce mondial des produits de base et aggrav\u00e9 une dynamique d\u2019inflation d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lev\u00e9e. En 2023 et 2024, les fortes hausses de taux des banques centrales et l\u2019inversion de la courbe des taux obligataires ont fait craindre une r\u00e9cession. En 2025, la guerre commerciale am\u00e9ricaine s\u2019est ajout\u00e9e \u00e0 ces d\u00e9fis. Le monde semble en train de surmonter ce choc commercial et l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique fait encore preuve de r\u00e9silience, mais des interrogations subsistent quant \u00e0 la suite des choses.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c9a12e-70\">Dans ce num\u00e9ro de nos Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers, nous abordons certaines des principales questions et inqui\u00e9tudes dont vous nous avez fait part au sujet de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale et des march\u00e9s financiers<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_78c2b7-6b alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c6e47-50\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est-elle vou\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019essor ou au recul en 2026?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24fbfb-c5\">En 2025, l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine a \u00e9t\u00e9 secou\u00e9e par une hausse historique des droits de douane, une brusque compression de la main-d\u2019\u0153uvre f\u00e9d\u00e9rale et la plus longue paralysie gouvernementale de l\u2019histoire. Pourtant, l\u2019activit\u00e9 a surpris par sa vigueur. On estime que la croissance \u00e9conomique a atteint 2,0 % en 2025. Les diff\u00e9rents vecteurs de cette performance solide ne s\u2019orientent pas tous dans la m\u00eame direction.<br\/>   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_fd01fe-66 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d17c91-4f\">Les d\u00e9penses li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019intelligence artificielle ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la croissance en 2025. S\u2019agit-il d\u2019une tendance durable ou faut-il s\u2019attendre \u00e0 un ralentissement brutal si ces investissements se tarissent? <\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_8c20e5-d7\">Les investissements dans les centres de donn\u00e9es, l\u2019\u00e9quipement informatique, le logiciel et la recherche-d\u00e9veloppement ont fortement contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique am\u00e9ricaine des derniers trimestres. Ainsi, S&amp;P Global estime que les d\u00e9penses li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA ont ajout\u00e9 environ 0,5 % \u00e0 la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el au cours des trois premiers trimestres de 2025. Pour 2026, l\u2019importance de ces investissements dans les perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine demeure tr\u00e8s controvers\u00e9e.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_312420-e2\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_312420-e2\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_312420-e2\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_312420-e2 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_312420-e2\">Les estimations optimistes laissent entrevoir des investissements suppl\u00e9mentaires de 500 \u00e0 700 milliards dans l\u2019IA cette ann\u00e9e, soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de 1,5 % \u00e0 2,0 % du PIB nominal. Cependant, cela pourrait se faire au d\u00e9triment d\u2019autres d\u00e9penses en immobilisations, limitant ainsi l\u2019apport de l\u2019IA \u00e0 la croissance. En revanche, les pr\u00e9visions pessimistes pr\u00e9sument qu\u2019une chute des investissements li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA minera l\u2019\u00e9conomie.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_9ad535-d9\">\u00c0 notre avis, ces projections n\u00e9gligent l\u2019\u00e9tendue de la demande int\u00e9rieure. Les investissements dans des biens durables autres que l\u2019IA ont augment\u00e9 de 1,7 % sur un an au troisi\u00e8me trimestre et pourraient encore progresser en 2026 si les sommes consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA sont r\u00e9affect\u00e9es ailleurs. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous ne nous attendons pas \u00e0 ce que les investissements dans l\u2019IA aient un impact notable sur notre pr\u00e9vision de base relativement \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_42f2f8-f1\">Nous jugeons plus important de nous interroger sur l\u2019effet \u00e0 long terme de l\u2019IA sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Il est trop t\u00f4t pour en pr\u00e9dire avec assurance les impacts structurels, mais nous croyons que les gains de productivit\u00e9 pourraient \u00eatre modestes \u00e0 br\u00e8ve et moyenne \u00e9ch\u00e9ance. \u00c0 cet \u00e9gard, il y a des le\u00e7ons \u00e0 tirer des donn\u00e9es empiriques des p\u00e9riodes d\u2019innovation technologique de la r\u00e9volution industrielle \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e8re de l\u2019internet, qui montrent que les d\u00e9penses d\u2019investissement mettent du temps \u00e0 produire des gains de productivit\u00e9 appr\u00e9ciables et que la transformation de la nature du travail n\u2019a entra\u00een\u00e9 que des avantages subtils sur ce plan. Il faut surtout retenir que les effets des changements technologiques varient beaucoup selon les secteurs, ce qui en att\u00e9nue l\u2019impact final sur la croissance du PIB. Bref, l\u2019IA pourrait certes avoir un effet positif sur la productivit\u00e9, mais il est peut-\u00eatre exag\u00e9r\u00e9 de pr\u00e9dire qu\u2019elle entra\u00eenera un essor \u00e9conomique sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<br\/>     <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_70441e-f8 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1437f5-11\">Les gains au chapitre de l\u2019emploi ont aussi jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le important dans la croissance. Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 quel point faut-il s\u2019inqui\u00e9ter de l\u2019affaiblissement du march\u00e9 du travail aux \u00c9tats-Unis? <\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ce72c-d9\">La croissance de l\u2019emploi a nettement ralenti l\u2019an dernier, les gains passant de 209 000 par mois au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024 \u00e0 55 000 par mois entre janvier et novembre 2025. Cette diminution marqu\u00e9e des embauches nettes a fait craindre une d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration rapide du march\u00e9 du travail am\u00e9ricain apr\u00e8s plusieurs ann\u00e9es de vigueur.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_529c4c-57\">Bien que les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes t\u00e9moignent d\u2019une r\u00e9duction de la demande de travailleurs, il importe de tenir compte des changements majeurs survenus du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l\u2019offre. Le resserrement du contr\u00f4le de l\u2019immigration a tr\u00e8s fortement limit\u00e9 la croissance de la main-d\u2019\u0153uvre l\u2019an dernier. La R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine estime que le taux d\u2019\u00e9quilibre de la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois \u2013 le nombre de nouveaux emplois requis chaque mois pour que le ch\u00f4mage reste stable \u2013 se situe actuellement entre z\u00e9ro et 50 000, contre une fourchette de 150 000 \u00e0 200 000 sous l\u2019administration Biden.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_278a64-47\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_278a64-47\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_278a64-47\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_278a64-47 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_278a64-47\">Ce r\u00e9alignement \u00e0 la baisse de l\u2019offre et de la demande de main-d\u2019\u0153uvre contribue au fait que le taux de ch\u00f4mage est demeur\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement stable et historiquement bas \u00e0 tout juste 4,6 % en novembre. Vu les politiques d\u2019immigration actuelles, le march\u00e9 du travail devrait rester quelque peu serr\u00e9 en 2026.<br\/> <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_02de44-ff > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_02de44-ff alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_bb9664-24\">La consommation am\u00e9ricaine repose-t-elle sur des bases solides ou fragiles?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f684a3-d9\">Comme nous l\u2019avons mentionn\u00e9 l\u2019an dernier, les d\u00e9penses de consommation am\u00e9ricaines sont in\u00e9gales, en ce sens qu\u2019elles sont de plus en plus tributaires des m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu \u00e9lev\u00e9. La capacit\u00e9 des m\u00e9nages les plus fortun\u00e9s \u00e0 soutenir ce niveau de d\u00e9penses jouera donc un r\u00f4le central dans les perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e40c6b-3a\">La valeur nette des m\u00e9nages s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 167 000 milliards de dollars au milieu de 2025 et avait probablement mont\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e vu la bonne performance boursi\u00e8re. \u00c0 notre avis, les Am\u00e9ricains appartenant au quintile de revenu le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u2013 qui comptent pour pr\u00e8s de 40 % des d\u00e9penses priv\u00e9es \u2013 sont bien plac\u00e9s pour continuer de contribuer aux d\u00e9penses de consommation. De plus, les remboursements d\u2019imp\u00f4t d\u00e9coulant de la \u00ab grande et belle loi \u00bb augmenteront le revenu disponible de la classe moyenne au premier semestre de 2026. En outre, on s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale op\u00e8re deux autres baisses de taux de 25 points de base en 2026, laissant entrevoir la persistance de conditions financi\u00e8res accommodantes pendant un certain temps.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_447674-5f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_447674-5f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_447674-5f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_447674-5f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_447674-5f\">Les perspectives sont donc favorables pour les d\u00e9penses de consommation \u2013 principale composante du PIB am\u00e9ricain. Leur progression ralentira sans doute en 2026, mais de fa\u00e7on graduelle plut\u00f4t qu\u2019abrupte. Elle devrait rester robuste au premier semestre, puis d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9rer par la suite. Sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e, nous pr\u00e9voyons une croissance de 1,0 % \u00e0 2,0 % du PIB des \u00c9tats-Unis en 2026 (tableau 1).<br\/>   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4b966e-a9\">Croissance du PIB r\u00e9elle mondial<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ecaa45-66\">Tableau 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td><strong>2025<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2026<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Monde<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>3.2%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>3.1%*<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>\u00c9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1.6%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1.6%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00c9tats-Unis<\/td><td>  2.0%<\/td><td>1.0-2.0%*<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Canada<\/td><td>1.2%<\/td><td>1.0-2.0%*<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zone euro<\/td><td>1.2%<\/td><td>~1,0 %*<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Royaume-Uni<\/td><td>1.3%<\/td><td>1.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japon<\/td><td>1.1%<\/td><td>0.6%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>\u00c9conomies \u00e9mergentes<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>4.2%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>4.0%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chine<\/td><td>4.8%<\/td><td>4.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inde<\/td><td>6.6%<\/td><td>6.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BrazilBr\u00e9sil<\/td><td>2.4%<\/td><td>1.9%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mexique<\/td><td>1.0%<\/td><td>1.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_010d8e-79\">*Pr\u00e9visions de LetkoBrosseau Sources : Fonds mon\u00e9taire international, LetkoBrosseau<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_e46fb9-39 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_79800c-9a\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui attend l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_ccba60-d2\">Le Canada s\u2019est mieux tir\u00e9 que pr\u00e9vu du d\u00e9clenchement de la guerre commerciale am\u00e9ricaine. Certains secteurs, comme l\u2019automobile, le bois d\u2019\u0153uvre, l\u2019acier et l\u2019aluminium, ont subi de plein fouet la hausse des droits de douane, mais les exemptions en vertu de l\u2019Accord Canada-\u00c9tats-Unis-Mexique (ACEUM) ont permis \u00e0 la majorit\u00e9 des exportations canadiennes de b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de droits effectifs (&lt;5 %) moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s que le taux annonc\u00e9 (35 %). Actuellement, presque 90 % des exportations canadiennes aux \u00c9tats-Unis demeurent exon\u00e9r\u00e9es de droits de douane.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c122e1-bc\">Une r\u00e9vision conjointe de l\u2019accord de libre-\u00e9change trilat\u00e9ral d\u00e9butera en juillet 2026, de sorte que la politique commerciale devrait rester incertaine \u00e0 court terme. L\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne peut toutefois compter sur des soutiens internes pour r\u00e9sister \u00e0 ces pressions ext\u00e9rieures. Premi\u00e8rement, le march\u00e9 du travail a fait preuve de solidit\u00e9 ces derniers mois, avec l\u2019ajout cumulatif de 181 000 emplois entre septembre et novembre. Durant la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, cette forte progression de l\u2019emploi a fait passer le taux de ch\u00f4mage de 7,1 % \u00e0 6,5 %, un creux de seize mois. Parall\u00e8lement, apr\u00e8s un pic d\u2019immigration historique, la croissance de la population active commence \u00e0 ralentir, un peu comme aux \u00c9tats-Unis. C\u2019est de bon augure pour les salaires, et nous pr\u00e9voyons que l\u2019augmentation du salaire horaire moyen (+3,6 % sur un an en novembre) continuera de d\u00e9passer l\u2019inflation (2,2 %).     <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_a7e980-6b\">Deuxi\u00e8mement, le budget f\u00e9d\u00e9ral tr\u00e8s attendu pr\u00e9voit un d\u00e9ficit de 78,3 milliards de dollars CA (2,5 % du PIB) pour l\u2019exercice 2025-2026, t\u00e9moignant d\u2019un plan de relance cons\u00e9quent et multidimensionnel. Les d\u00e9penses publiques en capital passeront de 1 % \u00e0 2 % du PIB et seront affect\u00e9es aux infrastructures, \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense et au logement. Le budget annonce un alourdissement de la dette publique, mais avec une dette nette d\u2019\u00e0 peine 8,3 % du PIB, cette augmentation ne compromet pas la viabilit\u00e9 des finances publiques.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f39bea-44\">Enfin, l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne va profiter d\u2019un all\u00e9gement des conditions financi\u00e8res en 2026. Les baisses successives de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de la Banque du Canada en septembre et octobre ont amen\u00e9 le taux directeur au niveau mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment stimulant de 2,25 %. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4abc44-d7\">Nous avons bon espoir que l\u2019\u00e9conomie canadienne connaisse un mouvement ascendant en 2026. La cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois et la forte croissance des salaires r\u00e9els cr\u00e9ent des fondamentaux solides pour la consommation, renforc\u00e9s par les effets de richesse li\u00e9s au march\u00e9 boursier. L\u2019incertitude commerciale persistera durant l\u2019ann\u00e9e, mais elle sera compens\u00e9e par une politique budg\u00e9taire et mon\u00e9taire expansionniste. Par cons\u00e9quent, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el du Canada s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rera pour se situer entre 1,0 % et 2,0 % en 2026.   <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_e45174-ea > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_e45174-ea alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95df4a-f6\">Que nous r\u00e9serve le dollar canadien en 2026?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_70b634-b0\">En ce d\u00e9but de 2026, le taux de change entre le huard et le billet vert demeure pr\u00e9occupant pour les entreprises et les m\u00e9nages canadiens. Il est difficile de pr\u00e9dire avec exactitude les fluctuations \u00e0 court terme d\u2019une monnaie, mais les investisseurs doivent absolument comprendre les principaux facteurs qui influenceront le taux de change des deux devises en 2026 et par la suite. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_efe140-38\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_efe140-38\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_efe140-38\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_efe140-38 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_efe140-38\">Fait rare, la Banque du Canada a abaiss\u00e9 son taux directeur bien avant la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine durant les deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, \u00e0 hauteur de 275 points de base contre seulement 175 points de base aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Ces diff\u00e9rentiels de taux \u00e0 court terme expliquent en partie les pressions qui se sont exerc\u00e9es r\u00e9cemment sur le dollar canadien vis-\u00e0-vis du dollar am\u00e9ricain. Nous anticipons que la dynamique des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat va d\u00e9sormais pencher en faveur du huard, puisqu\u2019on ne pr\u00e9voit pas d\u2019autres baisses de taux de la BdC au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026 tandis que la d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire devrait se poursuivre aux \u00c9tats-Unis.    <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c3d9fc-72\">L\u2019incertitude commerciale fait \u00e9galement planer une ombre persistante sur les perspectives du dollar canadien. Cependant, nous croyons que le risque de baisse est limit\u00e9. Actuellement, sur la base de notre mod\u00e8le de parit\u00e9 du pouvoir d\u2019achat, nous estimons que le huard est sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9 de 22 % par rapport au billet vert (graphique 1). Autrement dit, le dollar am\u00e9ricain est cher. Il l\u2019est aussi vis-\u00e0-vis des autres grandes monnaies, puisqu\u2019il semble sur\u00e9valu\u00e9 de 11 % par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019euro et s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 59 % au-dessus de la parit\u00e9 avec le yen. Nous pensons qu\u2019il pourrait s\u2019affaiblir quelque peu en 2026 et nous sommes convaincus que le dollar canadien, l\u2019euro et le yen offrent une valeur significative \u00e0 long terme.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dollar am\u00e9ricain vs. Dollar canadien<br\/>Taux de change et juste valeur<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3e4731-c9\">Graphique 1<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image13866_2a95b4-45.kb-image-is-ratio-size, .kb-image13866_2a95b4-45 .kb-image-is-ratio-size{max-width:840px;width:100%;}.wp-block-kadence-column > .kt-inside-inner-col > .kb-image13866_2a95b4-45.kb-image-is-ratio-size, .wp-block-kadence-column > .kt-inside-inner-col > .kb-image13866_2a95b4-45 .kb-image-is-ratio-size{align-self:unset;}.kb-image13866_2a95b4-45{max-width:840px;}.image-is-svg.kb-image13866_2a95b4-45{-webkit-flex:0 1 100%;flex:0 1 100%;}.image-is-svg.kb-image13866_2a95b4-45 img{width:100%;}.kb-image13866_2a95b4-45 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image13866_2a95b4-45 size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1980\" height=\"990\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-13869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01.png 1980w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01-625x313.png 625w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01-843x422.png 843w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01-480x240.png 480w, https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/fr-chart1-2026-01-768x384.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1980px) 100vw, 1980px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3b019c-cc\">Sources : Conseil des gouverneurs de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale des \u00c9tats-Unis, Banque du Canada, LetkoBrosseau<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style>.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_390e93-98{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_390e93-98 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_390e93-98 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_7dc46a-ab\">L\u2019\u00e9conomie de la zone euro peut-elle enfin trouver un certain dynamisme?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_244cf6-2a\">Malgr\u00e9 le ralentissement prolong\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie allemande, l\u2019effet n\u00e9gatif des droits de douane et l\u2019incertitude politique en France, l\u2019\u00e9conomie de la zone euro a continu\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre en 2025. Le PIB a mont\u00e9 de 1,4 % sur un an au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Nous croyons que les risques de repli de l\u2019activit\u00e9 sont moindres qu\u2019il y a un an.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f89e69-ac\">Les perturbations douani\u00e8res ont \u00e9t\u00e9 surmont\u00e9es et l\u2019accord commercial conclu en juillet entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne laisse entrevoir une possible stabilisation prochaine des flux commerciaux et des investissements \u00e9trangers. Parall\u00e8lement, la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne maintiendra sans doute ses taux \u00e0 2 % cette ann\u00e9e vu l\u2019embellie sur le front de l\u2019inflation. Les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt ont \u00e9t\u00e9 divis\u00e9s par deux depuis le milieu de 2024 et la zone euro est en passe de profiter d\u2019une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance du cr\u00e9dit.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_4ae0d7-f7\">Sur le plan budg\u00e9taire, les plans annonc\u00e9s r\u00e9cemment confirment notre pr\u00e9vision de budgets plus expansionnistes. L\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiera de la hausse des d\u00e9penses militaires et des mesures de relance budg\u00e9taire allemandes ax\u00e9es sur les investissements dans les infrastructures (1 % du PIB allemand). Ces facteurs nous font penser que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el de la zone euro se maintiendra autour de 1,0 % en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_3814d2-1c alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_65f725-4e\">Quelles sont les perspectives de croissance des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_f51a57-ab\">Les perspectives des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents sont contrast\u00e9es, la situation int\u00e9rieure de chaque pays pr\u00e9sentant des difficult\u00e9s et des possibilit\u00e9s particuli\u00e8res. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2e205d-aa\">Bien que la croissance du PIB de la Chine ait probablement atteint la cible gouvernementale d\u2019environ 5 % en 2025, des signes de ralentissement au quatri\u00e8me trimestre montrent que les d\u00e9cideurs seront sous pression pour maintenir le niveau d\u2019activit\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e. Durant les onze mois termin\u00e9s en novembre, les investissements en immobilisations ont chut\u00e9 de 2,6 % sur un an. La faiblesse persistante du secteur immobilier et les politiques anti-involution \u2013 qui visent \u00e0 contrer les poches de d\u00e9flation et la surcapacit\u00e9 \u2013 ont lourdement pes\u00e9 sur les d\u00e9penses en capital. Fait encourageant, le lancement d\u2019un nouvel outil de financement de 1 000 milliards de RMB pour certains projets pourrait contribuer \u00e0 la croissance des investissements en immobilisations en 2026.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_c7c703-b1\">Des actions sont prises pour renforcer l\u2019\u00e9conomie int\u00e9rieure, et nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que les autorit\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires et budg\u00e9taires annoncent d\u2019autres mesures de stimulation de la consommation et de soutien des investissements. Sur le front ext\u00e9rieur, l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial chinois sera vraisemblablement quelque peu inf\u00e9rieur au niveau record de 1 000 milliards de dollars enregistr\u00e9 l\u2019an dernier. Le FMI pr\u00e9voit que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el de la Chine ralentira \u00e0 4,2 % en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_3c924e-72\">En Inde, le PIB r\u00e9el a bondi de 8,2 % sur un an au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Avec la croissance de loin la plus rapide des grandes \u00e9conomies du monde, l\u2019Inde a peu souffert des droits de douane punitifs des \u00c9tats-Unis. La progression robuste des d\u00e9penses de consommation et du secteur des services a compens\u00e9 les pertes de recettes d\u2019exportation jusqu\u2019\u00e0 maintenant. La croissance devrait redescendre de ses sommets actuels, mais le FMI estime que l\u2019Inde s\u2019oriente vers une expansion r\u00e9elle solide de 6,2 % en 2026.   <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_be27c9-e4\">Les perspectives varient dans les autres grands march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents. Au Mexique, le PIB r\u00e9el devrait rebondir cette ann\u00e9e. L\u2019\u00e9conomie int\u00e9rieure a bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 aux d\u00e9fis commerciaux et profitera de la baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Le FMI pr\u00e9voit que le PIB r\u00e9el du Mexique cro\u00eetra de 1,5 % cette ann\u00e9e. Au Br\u00e9sil, l\u2019activit\u00e9 devrait ralentir en raison d\u2019une longue p\u00e9riode de resserrement mon\u00e9taire, des contraintes pesant sur la politique budg\u00e9taire et de l\u2019incertitude politique. Le FMI s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e8re \u00e0 1,9 % en 2026.     <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_18bccb-07\">Les perspectives des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents se caract\u00e9risent par des trajectoires de croissance et des risques divergents dans chaque pays. Dans l\u2019ensemble, cependant, l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de ces march\u00e9s devrait rester stable. Le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 4,0 % du PIB r\u00e9el des pays \u00e9mergents en 2026.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e459a7-84\">Que faut-il attendre des actions apr\u00e8s une si forte progression?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_91cb4a-28\">Les march\u00e9s boursiers ont atteint de nouveaux sommets au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, compl\u00e9tant une troisi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive de gains \u00e0 deux chiffres. L\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 a progress\u00e9 de 12,4 % (rendement total en dollars canadiens), le S&amp;P\/TSX de 31,7 %, le MSCI Tous les pays du monde de 16,6 % et le MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents de 27,3 %. Ce rendement robuste des actions mondiales est d\u2019autant plus impressionnant qu\u2019il a \u00e9t\u00e9 obtenu dans une conjoncture complexe et incertaine.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_766cb0-dd\">Les valorisations ont mont\u00e9 l\u2019an dernier \u2013 le S&amp;P 500 para\u00eet on\u00e9reux \u00e0 22 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9vus \u2013 mais la forte rentabilit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s a \u00e9galement jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le cl\u00e9 dans la r\u00e9silience des march\u00e9s. De fait, la majorit\u00e9 des secteurs du S&amp;P 500 ont enregistr\u00e9 une croissance notable des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices en 2025 (tableau 2). Selon nous, cette ampleur des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des entreprises devrait contribuer \u00e0 att\u00e9nuer une baisse possible de la valorisation des actions.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_2a5261-6c\">Par contre, les estimations de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e semblent encore \u00e9lev\u00e9es pour l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9, vu la perspective d\u2019une conjoncture \u00e9conomique certes propice, mais n\u00e9anmoins mitig\u00e9e. Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices du S&amp;P 500 devraient grimper de 18,1 % sur un an. Dans un contexte de croissance du PIB r\u00e9el de 1 % \u00e0 2 %, la barre est haute. Selon nous, ce d\u00e9calage entre les fondamentaux \u00e9conomiques et les attentes des investisseurs met en lumi\u00e8re un risque comportemental important toujours int\u00e9gr\u00e9 dans les march\u00e9s boursiers.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_24a0d0-2d\">Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous croyons que nos positions en actions continuent d\u2019offrir des perspectives de croissance attrayantes sur un horizon de trois \u00e0 cinq ans. Malgr\u00e9 un rendement record de 24,8 % et 38,0 % respectivement l\u2019an dernier, nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions mondiales et d\u2019actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 un escompte important par rapport \u00e0 leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence et offrent une valeur convaincante d\u2019\u00e0 peine 13,1 et 10,7 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9vus de 2026. \u00c0 titre de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, l\u2019indice MSCI Tous Pays du Monde (ACWI) affiche une valorisation de 18,9 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices provisionnels et l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00c9mergents de 13,2 fois.  <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h4 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_625bf0-0e\">B\u00e9n\u00e9fices d\u2019exploitation par action du S&amp;P 500 2025, variation sur un an (%)*<\/h4>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_0b38e9-18\">Tableau 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Technologies de l\u2019information<\/strong><\/td><td>31.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Services de communication<\/strong><\/td><td>24.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Soins de sant\u00e9<\/strong><\/td><td>18.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Mat\u00e9riaux<\/strong><\/td><td>14.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Industries<\/strong><\/td><td>   8.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Finance<\/strong><\/td><td>   5.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Services aux collectivit\u00e9s<\/strong><\/td><td>   1.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire<\/strong><\/td><td>   0.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Immobilier<\/strong><\/td><td>   0.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Biens de consommation de base<\/strong><\/td><td>  -1.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\u00c9nergie<\/strong><\/td><td>-10.7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d8cc1e-b7\">*Inclut le consensus des pr\u00e9visions de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour le T4 2025. Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices LLC <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_991d32-81{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_991d32-81 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_991d32-81 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_98e035-ea\">Dans notre conjoncture incertaine, quelle est votre strat\u00e9gie de r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif?<\/h3>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_e68d46-aa\">Dans un contexte de valorisations ambitieuses et d\u2019hypoth\u00e8ses de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices optimistes, les investisseurs doivent faire preuve d\u2019une certaine prudence. \u00c0 notre avis, la meilleure fa\u00e7on de limiter le risque boursier dans une telle conjoncture est de choisir les actions avec soin et d\u2019\u00eatre constamment \u00e0 l\u2019aff\u00fbt des risques planant sur nos positions, y compris une valorisation tendue et une exposition excessive. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_95e1bd-5f\">Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous maintenons d\u00e9sormais un niveau de liquidit\u00e9s mod\u00e9r\u00e9 dans nos portefeuilles et nous demeurons patients dans le red\u00e9ploiement des capitaux. Nous sommes convaincus que cette approche mesur\u00e9e sera r\u00e9compens\u00e9e \u00e0 moyen terme. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_d4fad8-6b\">Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, nous continuons de limiter le plus possible les risques et de prioriser la pr\u00e9servation du capital en insistant sur la qualit\u00e9 de nos positions obligataires et en \u00e9vitant les titres de duration longue. \u00c0 ce stade, nous ne pr\u00e9conisons aucune modification importante de la structure des portefeuilles et la r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif de nos mandats \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s demeure proche des niveaux cibles. <\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column13866_25ed53-61 alignwide\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb .kt-accordion-inner-wrap{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);row-gap:8px;}.kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb .kt-accordion-panel-inner{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);}.kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb > .kt-accordion-inner-wrap > .wp-block-kadence-pane > .kt-accordion-header-wrap > .kt-blocks-accordion-header{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-xxs, 0.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-xs, 1rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-xxs, 0.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-xs, 1rem);}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb .kt-accordion-inner-wrap{display:block;}.kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb .kt-accordion-inner-wrap .kt-accordion-pane:not(:first-child){margin-top:8px;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-accordion alignnone\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-wrap kt-accordion-id13866_21da69-bb kt-accordion-has-2-panes kt-active-pane-0 kt-accordion-block kt-pane-header-alignment-left kt-accodion-icon-style-basic kt-accodion-icon-side-right\" style=\"max-width:none\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-inner-wrap\" data-allow-multiple-open=\"false\" data-start-open=\"none\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-pane kt-accordion-pane kt-accordion-pane-1 kt-pane13866_2ae598-4c\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-header-wrap\"><button class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-header kt-acccordion-button-label-show\" type=\"button\"><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-title-wrap\"><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-title\">Mentions l\u00e9gales<\/span><\/span><span class=\"kt-blocks-accordion-icon-trigger\"><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"kt-accordion-panel kt-accordion-panel-hidden\"><div class=\"kt-accordion-panel-inner\"><style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<p class=\"kt-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading13866_1e3217-b2\">Dans ce texte, le \u00ab dollar \u00bb est le dollar US, sauf indication contraire.<br\/>Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mentionn\u00e9es sont \u00e0 titre indicatif uniquement et ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une recommandation d\u2019achat ou de vente. Il ne faut pas supposer qu\u2019un investissement dans ces entreprises \u00e9tait ou serait rentable. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<br\/>Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<br\/>Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<br\/>Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<br\/>Certaines informations contenues dans ce document constituent des \u00ab d\u00e9clarations prospectives \u00bb, qui peuvent \u00eatre identifi\u00e9es par l&rsquo;utilisation de termes prospectifs tels que \u00ab peut \u00bb, \u00ab sera \u00bb, \u00ab devrait \u00bb, \u00ab s&rsquo;attendre \u00e0 \u00bb, \u00ab anticiper \u00bb, \u00ab cibler \u00bb, \u00ab projeter \u00bb, \u00ab estimer \u00bb, \u00ab avoir l&rsquo;intention de \u00bb, \u00ab continuer \u00bb ou \u00ab croire \u00bb, ou la forme n\u00e9gative de ces termes, ou d&rsquo;autres variations de ces termes ou une terminologie comparable. Les d\u00e9clarations prospectives sont intrins\u00e8quement soumises, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, des incertitudes et des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et attendues, et d&rsquo;autres facteurs consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances, qui pourraient faire en sorte que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements, les r\u00e9sultats, les performances ou les perspectives r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent mat\u00e9riellement de ceux qui sont exprim\u00e9s ou sous-entendus dans ces d\u00e9clarations prospectives. Les lecteurs sont invit\u00e9s \u00e0 ne pas accorder une confiance excessive \u00e0 ces d\u00e9clarations pr\u00e9visionnelles.               Les informations MSCI sont fournies \u00ab telles quelles \u00bb et leur utilisateur assume l&rsquo;int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 leur utilisation. MSCI, chacune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es et toute autre personne impliqu\u00e9e ou li\u00e9e \u00e0 la compilation, au calcul ou \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d&rsquo;informations MSCI (collectivement, les \u00ab parties MSCI \u00bb) d\u00e9clinent express\u00e9ment toute garantie (y compris, notamment, toute garantie d&rsquo;originalit\u00e9, d&rsquo;exactitude et d&rsquo;exhaustivit\u00e9, respect des d\u00e9lais, non-contrefa\u00e7on, commercialisation et de convenance \u00e0 une fin particuli\u00e8re) en ce qui concerne ces informations. Sans limiter la port\u00e9e de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, en aucun cas une partie MSCI ne peut \u00eatre tenue responsable d\u2019un dommage direct, indirect, sp\u00e9cial, accessoire, punitif, cons\u00e9cutif (y compris, sans limitation, perte de profits) ou de tout autre dommage. (www.msci.com).   <br\/>L\u2019indice S&amp;P\/TSX est un produit de S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices LLC ou ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es (\u00ab SPDJI \u00bb) et de TSX Inc., utilis\u00e9 sous licence par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. Standard &amp; Poor&rsquo;sMD et S&amp;PMD sont des marques d\u00e9pos\u00e9es de Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s Financial Services LLC (\u00ab S&amp;P \u00bb), Dow JonesMD est une marque d\u00e9pos\u00e9e de Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (\u00ab Dow Jones \u00bb) et ces marques d\u00e9pos\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 conc\u00e9d\u00e9es sous licence par SPDJI et conc\u00e9d\u00e9es en sous-licence \u00e0 certaines fins par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associates Inc. TSXMD est une marque d\u00e9pos\u00e9e de TSX Inc., utilis\u00e9e sous licence par SPDJI et par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. Les produits de Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne sont pas commandit\u00e9s, approuv\u00e9s, vendus ou promus par SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&amp;P, leurs soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es respectives ou Bloomberg et aucune de ces parties ne font de d\u00e9clarations au sujet de la pertinence de r\u00e9aliser un placement dans ces produits et ne peuvent \u00eatre tenues responsables d\u2019erreurs, d\u2019omissions ou d\u2019interruptions touchant l\u2019indice S&amp;P\/TSX.<br\/>\u00ab BLOOMBERGMD \u00bb et les indices Bloomberg mentionn\u00e9s aux pr\u00e9sentes (les \u00ab Indices \u00bb) sont des marques de service de Bloomberg Finance L.P. et de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es, y compris Bloomberg Index Services Limited (\u00ab BISL \u00bb), l\u2019administrateur des Indices (collectivement, \u00ab Bloomberg \u00bb), et ont \u00e9t\u00e9 conc\u00e9d\u00e9s sous licence pour certaines utilisations par le distributeur des pr\u00e9sentes (le \u00ab Licenci\u00e9 \u00bb). Bloomberg n\u2019est pas affili\u00e9 au Licenci\u00e9 et n\u2019approuve, n\u2019endosse, n\u2019examine ni ne recommande les produits financiers mentionn\u00e9s aux pr\u00e9sentes (les \u00ab Produits \u00bb). Bloomberg ne garantit pas l\u2019actualit\u00e9, l\u2019exactitude ni l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es ou informations relatives aux Produits.<br\/>CFA : Un certificat professionnel offert par l&rsquo;institut CFA. La certification qualifie un analyste financier. Pour \u00eatre admissible au CFA\u00ae, il faut avoir travaill\u00e9 un certain nombre d&rsquo;ann\u00e9es dans le secteur financier et r\u00e9ussir trois niveaux d&rsquo;examens sur tous les sujets li\u00e9s \u00e0 l&rsquo;investissement. Les titulaires de la charte CFA\u00ae sont tenus d&rsquo;adh\u00e9rer et d&rsquo;attester annuellement de leur conformit\u00e9 au code d&rsquo;\u00e9thique et normes de conduite professionnelle de l&rsquo;institut CFA.     <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Janvier 2026 S\u00e9ance de questions avec nos \u00e9conomistes L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale a continu\u00e9 de cro\u00eetre malgr\u00e9 une s\u00e9rie d\u2019obstacles&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","footnotes":""},"post-category":[93],"investment-stategy":[],"media-type":[99],"publication_type":[63],"suited-for":[84,85],"topic":[],"class_list":["post-13941","publications","type-publications","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"taxonomy_info":[],"featured_image_src_large":false,"author_info":{"display_name":"Paul Mihailescu","author_link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/author\/paul\/"},"comment_info":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/13941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publications"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/13941\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13942,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publications\/13941\/revisions\/13942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post-category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post-category?post=13941"},{"taxonomy":"investment-stategy","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/investment-stategy?post=13941"},{"taxonomy":"media-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media-type?post=13941"},{"taxonomy":"publication_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type?post=13941"},{"taxonomy":"suited-for","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/suited-for?post=13941"},{"taxonomy":"topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topic?post=13941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}