{"id":9920,"date":"2022-04-13T10:17:24","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T14:17:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&#038;p=9920"},"modified":"2023-02-02T12:02:36","modified_gmt":"2023-02-02T17:02:36","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Avril 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=\u00a0\u00bb1&Prime; fullwidth=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_fullwidth_header background_overlay_color=\u00a0\u00bbrgba(0,0,0,0.55)\u00a0\u00bb _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; title_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb subhead_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb15px\u00a0\u00bb background_color=\u00a0\u00bb#ffffff\u00a0\u00bb background_image=\u00a0\u00bbhttps:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/shutterstock_1492079414_small.jpg\u00a0\u00bb background_position=\u00a0\u00bbbottom_right\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; 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_builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; width=\u00a0\u00bb95%\u00a0\u00bb width_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb80px\u00a0\u00bb width_phone=\u00a0\u00bb50px\u00a0\u00bb max_width_phone=\u00a0\u00bb1280px\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; border_style_all=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4&Prime; _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb|||\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding__hover=\u00a0\u00bb|||\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; header_5_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb24px\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<p>Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux se sont en partie remis du choc provoqu\u00e9 par l\u2019invasion russe en Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier. Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 a perdu 5,7\u00a0% en dollars canadiens, le S&amp;P\/TSX a mont\u00e9 de 3,8\u00a0% et l\u2019indice MSCI Monde s\u2019est inscrit en baisse de 6,2\u00a0%. L\u2019acc\u00e8s de faiblesse des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe de longue dur\u00e9e s\u2019est poursuivi sur fond d\u2019amorce de normalisation de la politique mon\u00e9taire. Ainsi, l\u2019obligation du gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 30 ans a perdu 15\u00a0% en trois mois alors que son taux a augment\u00e9 de 70 points de base. Nos strat\u00e9gies de placement ont affich\u00e9 une bonne tenue, largement du fait de nos placements dans les produits de base et les secteurs d\u00e9fensifs, de l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance relativement courte de nos titres \u00e0 revenu fixe et de l\u2019absence de positions dans les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s pr\u00e9sentant des valorisations \u00e9lev\u00e9es.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Nous restons d\u2019avis que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale va cro\u00eetre, malgr\u00e9 les risques pos\u00e9s par l\u2019inflation et par le conflit en Ukraine. Les retomb\u00e9es de la guerre russo-ukrainienne ne devraient pas avoir la m\u00eame intensit\u00e9 partout dans le monde. La Russie et l\u2019Ukraine vont subir une forte contraction \u00e9conomique, cependant, ces deux pays ne comptent que pour une fraction de la croissance mondiale. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, l\u2019Europe voit s\u2019accentuer le risque d\u2019un ralentissement \u00e9conomique vu sa d\u00e9pendance envers les livraisons d\u2019\u00e9nergie en provenance de la Russie. Par contre, aux \u00c9tats-Unis, au Canada et en Chine, l\u2019\u00e9conomie est sans doute assez r\u00e9siliente pour supporter une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e sans tomber en r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n<h3>Risque pesant sur les perspectives : Inflation<\/h3>\n<p>Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des aliments ont le plus contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019inflation globale durant le mois de f\u00e9vrier. L\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) tous produits a bondi de 7,9\u00a0% sur un an en f\u00e9vrier, et nous pensons que l\u2019impact \u00e0 court terme de la hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des aliments pourrait le faire encore grimper d\u2019environ 2\u00a0%, pour une inflation globale proche de 10\u00a0%. Comme nous le soulignons dans nos <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/perspectives-sur-la-conjoncture-economique-et-les-marches-financiers-t2-2022\/\"><em>Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers<\/em><\/a> d\u2019avril 2022, la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine sont d\u2019importants producteurs de denr\u00e9es agricoles, d\u2019\u00e9nergie et de m\u00e9taux industriels. Les march\u00e9s redoutant une perturbation de l\u2019offre, le prix de ces produits de base a bondi (Graphique 1).<\/p>\n<p>Par ailleurs, les d\u00e9penses alimentaires et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques offrant peu d\u2019\u00e9lasticit\u00e9, les m\u00e9nages devront sans doute r\u00e9duire leurs d\u00e9penses discr\u00e9tionnaires si la guerre entra\u00eene des perturbations durables. Ceci renforce le risque d\u2019une croissance plus faible que pr\u00e9vu, mais il ne faut pas conclure \u00e0 l\u2019imminence d\u2019une r\u00e9cession. En effet, la part du revenu disponible que les Am\u00e9ricains consacrent \u00e0 l\u2019alimentation et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9nergie demeure bien en de\u00e7\u00e0 de sa moyenne historique (Graphique 2). De plus, bien que le taux d\u2019\u00e9pargne soit redescendu \u00e0 sa moyenne aux \u00c9tats-Unis et au Canada, l\u2019\u00e9pargne exc\u00e9dentaire \u00e9quivaut encore \u00e0 plus de 10\u00a0% du PIB dans les deux pays. Ceci fait penser que les m\u00e9nages disposent d\u2019un certain coussin face \u00e0 la hausse des prix des aliments et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row column_structure=\u00a0\u00bb1_2,1_2&Prime; make_equal=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb admin_label=\u00a0\u00bbRow\u00a0\u00bb module_class=\u00a0\u00bbcharts-section\u00a0\u00bb _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb95%\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb1_2&Prime; _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; header_5_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb24px\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb height=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-box\">\n<div class=\"chart-reference\">Graphique 1<\/div>\n<h4>Indices des prix des produits de base<br \/>(depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e)<\/h4>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-9744 alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fra-chart-1-20220411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"627\" height=\"381\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-chart\">Source : Bloomberg au 31 mars 2022<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb1_2&Prime; _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; header_5_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb24px\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb height=\u00a0\u00bb100%\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-box\">\n<div class=\"chart-reference\">Graphique 2<\/div>\n<h4>D\u00e9penses alimentaires et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques des \u00c9tats-Unis<br \/>Part du revenu personnel disponible (nominal)<\/h4>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-9747 alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/fra-chart-2-20220411.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"343\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-chart\">Source : Bureau d\u2019analyse \u00e9conomique des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb95%\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4&Prime; _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; header_5_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb24px\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<h3>Risque pesant sur les perspectives : Situation g\u00e9opolitique<\/h3>\n<p>La Russie et l\u2019Ukraine comptent respectivement pour 1,7\u00a0% et 0,2\u00a0% du PIB mondial en termes nominaux. Le conflit et les sanctions \u00e9conomiques impos\u00e9es \u00e0 la Russie vont assur\u00e9ment entra\u00eener une forte contraction des deux \u00e9conomies, mais ce sont les retomb\u00e9es indirectes de la crise qui font peser un risque sur la croissance mondiale. L\u2019Europe est vuln\u00e9rable vu sa d\u00e9pendance envers l\u2019\u00e9nergie russe. L\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne tire environ les trois quarts de l\u2019\u00e9nergie qu\u2019elle consomme du p\u00e9trole (38\u00a0%), du gaz naturel (25\u00a0%) et du charbon (11\u00a0%), qu\u2019elle importe de Russie \u00e0 hauteur respective de 27\u00a0%, 40\u00a0% et 46\u00a0%.<sup>1<\/sup> Vu la menace qui p\u00e8se sur le flux physique de produits \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques vers l\u2019Europe, l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique du continent risque de souffrir davantage d\u2019un d\u00e9ficit d\u2019approvisionnement que de l\u2019inflation des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. Dans le reste des pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s et les pays \u00e9mergents, le risque \u00e9conomique r\u00e9side principalement dans l\u2019exacerbation des pressions inflationnistes sous l\u2019effet du conflit. Nous croyons que les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Canada sont bien plac\u00e9s pour affronter la situation et que les grands pays \u00e9mergents comme la Chine et l\u2019Inde devraient aussi pouvoir composer avec ces vents contraires.<\/p>\n<h3>R\u00e9flexions finales<\/h3>\n<p>Bien que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine et la Banque du Canada aient amorc\u00e9 un cycle de resserrement des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en relevant leurs taux directeurs de 25 points de base \u00e0 0,5\u00a0%, la politique mon\u00e9taire reste tr\u00e8s accommodante. Nous jugeons que nos portefeuilles sont bien structur\u00e9s pour supporter une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e et un certain risque g\u00e9opolitique. En mati\u00e8re de titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, notre strat\u00e9gie reste ax\u00e9e sur la pr\u00e9servation du capital et une courte dur\u00e9e, puisque les obligations \u00e0 long terme ne constituent pas un placement attrayant dans la conjoncture actuelle. En fait, nous remarquons que depuis une d\u00e9cennie, le rendement annualis\u00e9 de l\u2019obligation du gouvernement du Canada \u00e0 30 ans n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 que de 2,5\u00a0%. L\u2019inflation ayant atteint en moyenne 2,2\u00a0% durant cette p\u00e9riode, le rendement corrig\u00e9 de l\u2019inflation (ou r\u00e9el) a \u00e9t\u00e9 de 0,3\u00a0% par ann\u00e9e, maigre performance m\u00eame dans un contexte de faibles pressions sur les prix. Par contraste, l\u2019indice MSCI Monde a produit un rendement annualis\u00e9 moyen de 13,5\u00a0% (en dollars canadiens) depuis 10 ans malgr\u00e9 les perturbations entra\u00een\u00e9es par la crise de la dette europ\u00e9enne, la guerre commerciale sino-am\u00e9ricaine et la pand\u00e9mie. Nous estimons que nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions se n\u00e9gocient actuellement \u00e0 un niveau de valorisation tr\u00e8s raisonnable (11 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de 2022), versent un taux de dividende attrayant (3\u00a0%) et devraient cr\u00e9er une valeur int\u00e9ressante \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n<p><sup>\u00a0<\/sup><\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> Communiqu\u00e9 de presse de la Commission europ\u00e9enne \u00ab Questions et r\u00e9ponses sur REPowerEU \u00bb<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_toggle title=\u00a0\u00bbMentions l\u00e9gales\u00a0\u00bb open_toggle_text_color=\u00a0\u00bb#3e395b\u00a0\u00bb open_toggle_background_color=\u00a0\u00bb#ffffff\u00a0\u00bb closed_toggle_background_color=\u00a0\u00bb#ffffff\u00a0\u00bb icon_color=\u00a0\u00bb#3e395b\u00a0\u00bb open_icon_color=\u00a0\u00bb#3e395b\u00a0\u00bb admin_label=\u00a0\u00bbLegal notes\u00a0\u00bb _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16&Prime; title_text_color=\u00a0\u00bb#3e395b\u00a0\u00bb title_font=\u00a0\u00bbArchivo||||||||\u00a0\u00bb title_text_align=\u00a0\u00bbcenter\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0&Prime; title_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb title_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb title_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb closed_title_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb closed_title_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb closed_title_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb body_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb body_link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb body_ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb body_ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb body_quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb body_quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb saved_tabs=\u00a0\u00bball\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<div class=\"disclaimer-chart\">Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n<p>Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n<p>Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n<p>Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux se sont en partie remis du choc provoqu\u00e9 par l\u2019invasion russe en Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\/\">Lire la suite&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":9911,"template":"landing-perspective.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-9920","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Avril 2022 - Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Avril 2022 - Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux se sont en partie remis du choc provoqu\u00e9 par l\u2019invasion russe en Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-02T17:02:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/FRA-1200-628-202204-8.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-avril-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Avril 2022 - Letko, Brosseau &amp; 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