{"id":8837,"date":"2021-12-16T15:09:36","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T20:09:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&p=8837"},"modified":"2021-12-16T15:11:24","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T20:11:24","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles – D\u00e9cembre 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Le point sur les portefeuilles<\/h1>\n

Le 10 d\u00e9cembre 2021<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont connu certaines turbulences ces deux derni\u00e8res semaines, sous la pression combin\u00e9e de l\u2019apparition du variant Omicron de la Covid-19 et de la perspective d\u2019un rel\u00e8vement plus rapide que pr\u00e9vu des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Les rendements annuels cumulatifs restent toutefois excellents : de janvier \u00e0 fin novembre, l\u2019indice S&P 500 a d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un rendement global de 24,0 % (en dollars canadiens), le S&P\/TSX a progress\u00e9 de 21,4 % et l\u2019indice MSCI Monde a grimp\u00e9 de 17,6 %. Nos strat\u00e9gies ont surclass\u00e9 leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, et nous sommes convaincus que nos portefeuilles sont bien plac\u00e9s pour cr\u00e9er une valeur int\u00e9ressante \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n

Le variant Omicron va-t-il faire d\u00e9railler la reprise?<\/h3>\n

Avec plus de 50 mutations, le variant Omicron soul\u00e8ve des inqui\u00e9tudes chez les scientifiques. Les cons\u00e9quences de ces mutations sur la gravit\u00e9 de la maladie, l\u2019immunit\u00e9 ant\u00e9rieure et la transmissibilit\u00e9 demeurent floues. Cependant, les mutations ne sont pas toutes dangereuses. Certaines n\u2019ont aucun effet sur le virus, certaines peuvent \u00eatre contreproductives, et cela peut d\u00e9pendre du milieu o\u00f9 elles se r\u00e9pandent.<\/p>\n

De nouvelles \u00e9tudes pourraient r\u00e9v\u00e9ler une r\u00e9duction de la protection contre les infections offerte par les vaccins en raison d\u2019une baisse potentielle de l\u2019activit\u00e9 des anticorps. Cependant, comme dans le cas des variants Alpha et Delta, la protection contre les maladies graves pourrait rester tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e gr\u00e2ce au r\u00f4le des lymphocytes T dans la r\u00e9ponse immunitaire. Les vaccins devraient conserver une certaine efficacit\u00e9, en particulier contre les hospitalisations et les d\u00e9c\u00e8s dus \u00e0 ce variant. Les traitements par anticorps comme sotrovimab, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis au point par GlaxoSmithKline et Vir Biotechnology, ont d\u00e9montr\u00e9 lors d\u2019\u00e9tudes pr\u00e9cliniques qu\u2019ils conservaient une activit\u00e9 contre les mutations cl\u00e9s du variant Omicron. Les antiviraux oraux de Merck et Pfizer devraient aussi \u00eatre efficaces, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 leur m\u00e9canisme d\u2019action. Les plateformes de d\u00e9pistage existantes, dont les tests antig\u00e9niques rapides, ne semblent pas affect\u00e9es par les mutations. Dans l\u2019ensemble, la panoplie de mesures adopt\u00e9e au cours des 21 derniers mois demeure robuste. Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude qui entoure encore le profil du nouveau variant, nous pr\u00e9voyons que la pand\u00e9mie continuera g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement d\u2019\u00e9voluer vers une phase end\u00e9mique au cours des prochains mois, ce qui facilitera un retour \u00e0 la normale.<\/p>\n

Notre strat\u00e9gie de placement reste sur la bonne voie<\/h3>\n

Malgr\u00e9 la volatilit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme r\u00e9cemment observ\u00e9e sur les march\u00e9s financiers, nous sommes toujours convaincus que notre strat\u00e9gie de placement reste sur la bonne voie pour cr\u00e9er une valeur durable. Comme nous l\u2019avons soulign\u00e9 dans notre mise \u00e0 jour<\/a> du mois dernier, nos portefeuilles renferment des titres qui se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 des multiples raisonnables par rapport aux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, aux flux de tr\u00e9sorerie et \u00e0 la valeur comptable. Nous sommes expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des secteurs offrant une protection naturelle contre l\u2019inflation (produits de base) et qui ont tendance \u00e0 afficher une bonne tenue en p\u00e9riode de hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat (finance). Nous limitons notre exposition aux secteurs assimilables aux titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, comme les services publics et l\u2019immobilier. De plus, nous \u00e9vitons les actions \u00e0 valorisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e, qui, historiquement, se sont av\u00e9r\u00e9es vuln\u00e9rables \u00e0 la mont\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n

Nous sommes optimistes au sujet de la solide performance op\u00e9rationnelle des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dont nous d\u00e9tenons les titres. Au troisi\u00e8me trimestre, 60 % de nos placements canadiens et 86 % de nos placements internationaux ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 le consensus des pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9sultats et, en moyenne, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ont \u00e9t\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 celui-ci de 21 % (canadiens) et de 23 % (internationaux). Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s canadiennes et internationales pr\u00e9sentes en portefeuille ont affich\u00e9 des profits en hausse, respectivement, de 180 % et 100 % sur 12 mois en septembre. Au cours des 24 prochains mois, la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices devrait ralentir \u00e0 mesure que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale passe de la phase de rebond \u00e0 la phase de maintien du cycle. Nous tablons sur une croissance cumulative des profits de 19 % pour nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions canadiennes et sur une augmentation semblable pour nos portefeuilles internationaux (tableau 1).<\/p>\n

\n
Tableau 1<\/div>\n

Donn\u00e9es estimatives cl\u00e9s pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u00e9tenues dans les portefeuilles d\u2019actions de LetkoBrosseau et leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

*Bas\u00e9 sur les cours boursiers au 30\u00a0novembre\u00a02021<\/p>\n

Sources\u00a0: Estimations consensuelles de FactSet (Donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res et analyse de FactSet (www.factset.com<\/a>)) et calculs de Letko Brosseau, Fonds d\u2019actions canadiennes Letko Brosseau, Fonds d\u2019actions internationales Letko\u00a0Brosseau<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nous restons tr\u00e8s rigoureux quant au prix auquel nous achetons chaque titre. Nous nous concentrons sur la valeur intrins\u00e8que et \u00e9vitons les situations susceptibles d\u2019entra\u00eener une perte permanente de capital. Par cons\u00e9quent, nos portefeuilles canadiens et internationaux se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 environ 30 % en de\u00e7\u00e0 des indices boursiers de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence et offrent une valeur int\u00e9ressante, \u00e0 10,3 et 12,3 fois respectivement les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices estimatifs de 2022. Si les pr\u00e9visions de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices figurant au tableau 1 se r\u00e9alisent et que les ratios cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice demeurent constants, nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions pourraient d\u00e9gager un rendement global d\u2019environ 12 % par an sur les deux prochaines ann\u00e9es. En ce qui concerne les portefeuilles \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 nos attentes de rendement tr\u00e8s modestes pour les titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, des rendements de l\u2019ordre de 6 \u00e0 8 % sont selon nous possibles.<\/p>\n

Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous sommes persuad\u00e9s que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale surmontera le variant Omicron. Nous encourageons les investisseurs \u00e0 faire preuve de patience face \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9, et \u00e0 se concentrer sur le potentiel de rendement \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n

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Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n

Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n

Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n

Les informations de MSCI ne peuvent \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es que pour votre usage interne, ne peuvent \u00eatre reproduites ou rediffus\u00e9es sous quelque forme que ce soit, ni utilis\u00e9es comme base ou composante d\u2019instruments, produits ou indices financiers. Aucune des informations de MSCI ne vise \u00e0 fournir des conseils en mati\u00e8re de placements ou une recommandation de prendre (ou de s’abstenir de prendre) une d\u00e9cision d’investissement et ne doit pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e comme telle. Les donn\u00e9es et analyses historiques ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une indication ou une garantie d\u2019une analyse, pr\u00e9vision ou pr\u00e9diction de performance. Les informations MSCI sont fournies \u00ab telles quelles \u00bb et leur utilisateur assume l’int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 leur utilisation. MSCI, chacune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es et toute autre personne impliqu\u00e9e ou li\u00e9e \u00e0 la compilation, au calcul ou \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d’informations MSCI (collectivement, les \u00ab parties MSCI \u00bb) d\u00e9clinent express\u00e9ment toute garantie (y compris, notamment, toute garantie d’originalit\u00e9, d’exactitude et d’exhaustivit\u00e9, respect des d\u00e9lais, non-contrefa\u00e7on, commercialisation et de convenance \u00e0 une fin particuli\u00e8re) en ce qui concerne ces informations. Sans limiter la port\u00e9e de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, en aucun cas une partie MSCI ne peut \u00eatre tenue responsable d\u2019un dommage direct, indirect, sp\u00e9cial, accessoire, punitif, cons\u00e9cutif (y compris, sans limitation, perte de profits) ou de tout autre dommage. (www.msci.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n

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Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont connu certaines turbulences ces deux derni\u00e8res semaines, sous la pression combin\u00e9e de l\u2019apparition du variant Omicron de la Covid-19 et de la perspective d\u2019un rel\u00e8vement plus rapide que pr\u00e9vu des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat […]<\/p>\n

Lire la suite…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8833,"template":"landing-perspective-wCSS.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-8837","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe point sur les portefeuilles - D\u00e9cembre 2021 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - D\u00e9cembre 2021 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont connu certaines turbulences ces deux derni\u00e8res semaines, sous la pression combin\u00e9e de l\u2019apparition du variant Omicron de la Covid-19 et de la perspective d\u2019un rel\u00e8vement plus rapide que pr\u00e9vu des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-12-16T20:11:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/ENG-1200-628-202112.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"22 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-decembre-2021\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - 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