{"id":8544,"date":"2021-11-09T10:00:10","date_gmt":"2021-11-09T15:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&p=8544"},"modified":"2021-11-09T10:00:12","modified_gmt":"2021-11-09T15:00:12","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles – Novembre 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Le point sur les portefeuilles<\/h1>\n

Le 8 novembre 2021<\/p>\n

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Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont poursuivi leur ascension, port\u00e9s par un climat d\u2019affaires favorable qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte progression des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, l\u2019indice S&P 500 affiche un rendement global de 20,7\u00a0% en dollars canadiens, l\u2019indice S&P\/TSX est en hausse de 23,4\u00a0% et l\u2019indice MSCI Monde a mont\u00e9 de 16,2\u00a0%. Nos strat\u00e9gies en actions ont surclass\u00e9 leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sur cette p\u00e9riode et sont bien plac\u00e9es pour tirer parti de la prochaine phase de la reprise. De plus, notre strat\u00e9gie \u00e9quilibr\u00e9e a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d\u2019un positionnement court pour la dur\u00e9e des obligations et de notre d\u00e9cision de privil\u00e9gier les actions dans la r\u00e9partition d\u2019actif. Les titres \u00e0 revenu fixe restent vuln\u00e9rables aux pressions inflationnistes, tout comme les actions fortement valoris\u00e9es. Nous avons structur\u00e9 nos portefeuilles en vue d\u2019att\u00e9nuer ces risques.<\/p>\n

Croissance \u00e0 deux chiffres pr\u00e9vue des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s en portefeuille<\/h3>\n

La reprise robuste post\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie a permis aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de r\u00e9aliser des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices solides au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Par exemple, on estime que le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice d\u2019exploitation des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s du S&P 500 a grimp\u00e9 de 53\u00a0% sur un an. Malgr\u00e9 cette performance remarquable, nous pensons que cette progression peut se poursuivre, notamment dans le cas des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s que nous d\u00e9tenons dans nos portefeuilles. Celles qui sont pr\u00e9sentes dans nos strat\u00e9gies en actions devraient voir leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices cro\u00eetre plus rapidement que celles des indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence durant les deux prochaines ann\u00e9es, alors que leurs valorisations restent tr\u00e8s attrayantes (Tableau\u00a01). De fait, selon les estimations consensuelles, le chiffre d\u2019affaires et les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de notre strat\u00e9gie en actions canadiennes devraient augmenter presque deux fois plus rapidement que ceux du S&P\/TSX alors que le portefeuille se n\u00e9gocie autour de 10\u00a0fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, un escompte de 33\u00a0% par rapport au march\u00e9. Notre portefeuille d\u2019actions non canadiennes pr\u00e9sente un escompte semblable et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui le composent devraient voir leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices cro\u00eetre encore davantage, \u00e0 hauteur de plus de 20\u00a0% sur la p\u00e9riode de deux ans.<\/p>\n

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Tableau 1<\/div>\n

Donn\u00e9es estimatives cl\u00e9s pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u00e9tenues dans les portefeuilles d\u2019actions de LetkoBrosseau et leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence<\/h4>\n

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*Bas\u00e9 sur les cours boursiers au 30\u00a0septembre\u00a02021<\/p>\n

Sources\u00a0: Estimations consensuelles de Donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res et analyse de FactSet (www.factset.com<\/a>) et calculs de Letko Brosseau, Fonds d\u2019actions canadiennes Letko Brosseau, Fonds d\u2019actions internationales Letko\u00a0Brosseau<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Comment avons-nous int\u00e9gr\u00e9 le risque d\u2019inflation dans la strat\u00e9gie de nos portefeuilles?<\/h3>\n

Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation de base, qui mesure l\u2019inflation sans les composantes volatiles de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et de l\u2019alimentation, a affich\u00e9 une progression annuelle de 4,0\u00a0% en septembre, soit le double du niveau cible de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Comme nous l\u2019expliquions dans le dernier num\u00e9ro de nos Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers<\/em><\/a>, nous pensons que la forte hausse r\u00e9cente de l\u2019inflation est en grande partie attribuable \u00e0 la perturbation des cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales et \u00e0 des secteurs ayant particuli\u00e8rement souffert de la pand\u00e9mie, comme l\u2019h\u00f4tellerie et les transports a\u00e9riens. Ces facteurs sont temporaires et finiront par se dissiper.<\/p>\n

L\u2019inflation pourrait certes d\u00e9passer quelque temps la moyenne de 1,8\u00a0% enregistr\u00e9e durant la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, mais elle risque peu de compromettre la croissance mondiale. Pour mettre \u00e0 mal la reprise, il faudrait que des pressions haussi\u00e8res persistantes sur les prix entra\u00eenent une augmentation constante des taux d\u2019inflation. D\u2019aucuns redoutent que des facteurs structurels, comme l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du d\u00e9part \u00e0 la retraite des baby-boomers et la p\u00e9nurie cyclique de travailleurs dans le secteur des services, stimulent une forte progression des salaires qui permettrait \u00e0 l\u2019inflation de prendre racine. \u00c0 notre avis, cette source de pression sur les prix va s\u2019att\u00e9nuer avec la r\u00e9ouverture des fronti\u00e8res aux immigrants et la fin des programmes de prestations salariales mis en place durant la pand\u00e9mie. \u00c0 ce stade, nous consid\u00e9rons que le risque d\u2019une inflation galopante est faible.<\/p>\n

Fondamentalement, une hausse l\u00e9g\u00e8re de l\u2019inflation avantage habituellement les actions ax\u00e9es sur la valeur. Le graphique ci-dessous fait ressortir une corr\u00e9lation positive entre l\u2019inflation et la surperformance des strat\u00e9gies de portefeuille sensibles aux prix. Nous avons examin\u00e9 le rendement des actions de valeur par rapport \u00e0 celui des actions de croissance aux \u00c9tats-Unis depuis 90\u00a0ans. Ces donn\u00e9es historiques r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que sur une base annualis\u00e9e, les actions de valeur ont surperform\u00e9 durant toutes les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 l\u2019exception des ann\u00e9es\u00a01930 (d\u00e9pression\/d\u00e9flation), 1990 (bulle des technos) et 2010 (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ultrabas\/\u00ab\u00a0assouplissements quantitatifs\u00a0\u00bb). On notera \u00e9galement que la valeur a surclass\u00e9 la croissance durant six des sept d\u00e9cennies o\u00f9 le taux d\u2019inflation annualis\u00e9 \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 2\u00a0%. Ceci s\u2019explique probablement par le fait que ces conjonctures s\u2019accompagnent habituellement de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui ont un impact n\u00e9gatif disproportionn\u00e9 sur les actions de croissance dont les valorisations sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

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Graphique 1<\/div>\n

Rendement relatif des actions am\u00e9ricaines de valeur et de croissance en fonction de l\u2019inflation (1930-2019)<\/h4>\n

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\n

Sources : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Toutes les r\u00e9f\u00e9rences aux actions de croissance et de valeur sont bas\u00e9es sur la biblioth\u00e8que Fama\/French des rendements historiques des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 grande capitalisation dans la Bourse de New York et les bourses AMEX et NASDAQ : https:\/\/mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu\/pages\/faculty\/ken.french\/data_library.html<\/a>. Les donn\u00e9es comprennent les calculs de Letko Brosseau.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nos portefeuilles affichent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement des multiples moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s par rapport aux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, aux flux de tr\u00e9sorerie, \u00e0 la valeur comptable et au chiffre d\u2019affaires. Or, les donn\u00e9es empiriques semblent indiquer qu\u2019une telle approche donne de bons r\u00e9sultats \u00e0 la longue et surperforme de fa\u00e7on particuli\u00e8re dans un contexte inflationniste. De plus, nos portefeuilles sont construits pour tol\u00e9rer un renforcement de l\u2019inflation. Du point de vue de la r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif, nous avons r\u00e9duit la pond\u00e9ration des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe au profit des actions dans nos portefeuilles \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s. Notre strat\u00e9gie obligataire att\u00e9nue les effets des pressions haussi\u00e8res sur les prix et des hausses potentielles des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en maintenant une dur\u00e9e moyenne inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 deux\u00a0ans. Parall\u00e8lement, nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions sont expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des secteurs qui offrent une protection naturelle contre l\u2019inflation (produits de base) et qui ont tendance \u00e0 afficher une bonne tenue en p\u00e9riode de hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat (finance). Nous limitons notre exposition aux secteurs comparables aux titres \u00e0 revenu fixe comme les services publics et l\u2019immobilier. De plus, nous \u00e9vitons les actions \u00e0 valorisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e qui sont vuln\u00e9rables \u00e0 la mont\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n

Nous entrevoyons encore une longue p\u00e9riode de croissance et croyons que nos portefeuilles sont bien plac\u00e9s pour tirer parti des tendances cycliques et s\u00e9culaires, tout en continuant d\u2019offrir une valeur raisonnable.<\/p>\n

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box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Dans ce texte, le \u00ab\u00a0dollar\u00a0\u00bb est le dollar US, sauf indication contraire.<\/p>\n

Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n

Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n

Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n

Les informations de MSCI ne peuvent \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es que pour votre usage interne, ne peuvent \u00eatre reproduites ou rediffus\u00e9es sous quelque forme que ce soit ni utilis\u00e9es comme base ou composante d\u2019instruments, produits ou indices financiers. Aucune des informations de MSCI ne vise \u00e0 fournir des conseils en mati\u00e8re de placements ou une recommandation de prendre (ou de s’abstenir de prendre) une d\u00e9cision d’investissement et ne doit pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e comme telle. Les donn\u00e9es et analyses historiques ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une indication ou une garantie d\u2019une analyse, pr\u00e9vision ou pr\u00e9diction de performance. Les informations MSCI sont fournies \u00ab telles quelles \u00bb et leur utilisateur assume l’int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 leur utilisation. MSCI, chacune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es et toute autre personne impliqu\u00e9e ou li\u00e9e \u00e0 la compilation, au calcul ou \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d’informations MSCI (collectivement, les \u00ab parties MSCI \u00bb) d\u00e9clinent express\u00e9ment toute garantie (y compris, notamment, toute garantie d’originalit\u00e9, d’exactitude et d’exhaustivit\u00e9, respect des d\u00e9lais, non-contrefa\u00e7on, commercialisation et de convenance \u00e0 une fin particuli\u00e8re) en ce qui concerne ces informations. Sans limiter la port\u00e9e de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, en aucun cas une partie MSCI ne peut \u00eatre tenue responsable d\u2019un dommage direct, indirect, sp\u00e9cial, accessoire, punitif, cons\u00e9cutif (y compris, sans limitation, perte de profits) ou de tout autre dommage. (www.msci.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n

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Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont poursuivi leur ascension, port\u00e9s par un climat d\u2019affaires favorable qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte progression des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices […]<\/p>\n

Lire la suite…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":8543,"template":"landing-perspective-wCSS.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-8544","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe point sur les portefeuilles - Novembre 2021 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - Novembre 2021 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont poursuivi leur ascension, port\u00e9s par un climat d\u2019affaires favorable qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte progression des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-09T15:00:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/FRA-1200-628-202111.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"24 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2021\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - 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