{"id":7829,"date":"2021-08-06T12:25:50","date_gmt":"2021-08-06T16:25:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&p=7829"},"modified":"2021-08-06T13:11:53","modified_gmt":"2021-08-06T17:11:53","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Le point sur les portefeuilles<\/h1>\n

6 ao\u00fbt 2021<\/p>\n

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Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e jusqu\u2019au 31\u00a0juillet, les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont enregistr\u00e9 un rendement global \u00e0 deux\u00a0chiffres. L\u2019indice S&P 500 a gagn\u00e9 15,6\u00a0% en dollars canadiens, le S&P\/TSX a grimp\u00e9 de 18,2\u00a0% et l\u2019indice MSCI Monde a mont\u00e9 de 12,8\u00a0%. Nos portefeuilles d\u2019actions ont affich\u00e9 des rendements encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, surclassant leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sur cette p\u00e9riode. Ces avanc\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 rendues possibles par les progr\u00e8s de la vaccination dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s et par des mesures de relance sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent \u00e9quivalant environ au tiers du PIB mondial.<\/p>\n

Cependant, ces derni\u00e8res semaines, des secteurs comme l\u2019\u00e9nergie, les mat\u00e9riaux et la finance ont recul\u00e9, plomb\u00e9s par la crainte que la reprise \u00e9conomique marque le pas devant l\u2019augmentation des cas de COVID-19. Cette recrudescence des cas est surtout imputable \u00e0 la r\u00e9ouverture de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et \u00e0 la plus grande contagiosit\u00e9 du variant Delta. Ces facteurs vont vraisemblablement contribuer \u00e0 la propagation du virus, mais la relation entre celle-ci et les hospitalisations ou les d\u00e9c\u00e8s faiblit consid\u00e9rablement gr\u00e2ce aux efforts de vaccination. De fait, les vaccins les plus utilis\u00e9s actuellement paraissent efficaces contre le variant Delta. Deux doses du vaccin Pfizer offrent une protection de 88\u00a0% contre la maladie symptomatique et d\u2019environ 95\u00a0% contre l\u2019hospitalisation. Deux doses du vaccin AstraZeneca conf\u00e8rent une protection de 67\u00a0% contre la maladie symptomatique et de plus de 90\u00a0% contre l\u2019hospitalisation. Comme pr\u00e9vu, les populations plus vaccin\u00e9es sont mieux prot\u00e9g\u00e9es contre la vague d\u2019infections qui s\u2019annonce. Pour citer Rochelle Walensky, directrice des Centres de contr\u00f4le et de pr\u00e9vention des maladies des \u00c9tats-Unis, \u00ab\u00a0nous commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 assister \u00e0 une pand\u00e9mie des non-vaccin\u00e9s\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Le Royaume-Uni offre un exemple utile \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard. Dans ce pays, les taux d\u2019hospitalisation et de mortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9s \u00e0 la COVID-19 ont fortement chut\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de mars\/avril, au moment o\u00f9 une partie importante de la population a \u00e9t\u00e9 vaccin\u00e9e (graphique 1). Durant les mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant la vaccination \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle, le ratio des d\u00e9c\u00e8s par rapport aux nouveaux cas diagnostiqu\u00e9s se situait entre 1,5 % et 3 %. Maintenant que pr\u00e8s de 70 % de la population britannique a re\u00e7u au moins une dose de vaccin et que plus de la moiti\u00e9 des habitants en ont re\u00e7u deux, le ratio des d\u00e9c\u00e8s par rapport aux nouveaux cas est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 0,2 %. De m\u00eame, le pourcentage des hospitalisations par rapport aux nouveaux cas diagnostiqu\u00e9s, qui se situait entre 7 % et 11 % avant la vaccination, a diminu\u00e9 \u00e0 2,3 % et continue de baisser.<\/p>\n

\n
Graphique 1<\/div>\n

La COVID au Royaume-Uni<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sources : Our World in Data: https:\/\/covid.ourworldindata.org\/data\/owid-covid-data.csv<\/a>, Letko Brosseau.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Il importe de noter que les cas diagnostiqu\u00e9s ne repr\u00e9sentent qu\u2019une partie du total des infections. Bien des personnes infect\u00e9es ne sont ni test\u00e9es ni comptabilis\u00e9es, surtout lorsqu\u2019elles sont asymptomatiques ou ne pr\u00e9sentent que des sympt\u00f4mes l\u00e9gers. Les taux r\u00e9els d\u2019hospitalisation et de mortalit\u00e9 sont donc nettement inf\u00e9rieurs aux chiffres publi\u00e9s. Vu l\u2019am\u00e9lioration significative des issues cliniques, le syst\u00e8me de sant\u00e9 du Royaume-Uni peut supporter un taux d\u2019infection beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 sans \u00eatre d\u00e9bord\u00e9. Les nouveaux cas quotidiens ont bondi \u00e0 environ 52\u00a0000 \u00e0 la mi-juillet, proche du sommet pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent d\u2019environ 65\u00a0000, mais le taux d\u2019hospitalisation et de d\u00e9c\u00e8s est rest\u00e9 tr\u00e8s bas en raison d\u2019une forte vaccination.<\/p>\n

Le lien entre les infections \u00e0 la COVID-19 et les hospitalisations ou les d\u00e9c\u00e8s faiblit, mais n\u2019est pas encore enti\u00e8rement rompu. Aux taux de vaccination actuels, a-t-il faibli suffisamment pour permettre une r\u00e9ouverture compl\u00e8te de l\u2019\u00e9conomie? L\u2019exemple du Royaume-Uni offre les pr\u00e9mices d\u2019une r\u00e9ponse positive. Depuis le pic r\u00e9cent de pr\u00e8s de 52\u00a0000\u00a0nouveaux cas, le nombre de cas diminue rapidement alors que le retrait des mesures d\u2019endiguement se poursuit. La vague imminente pourrait donc constituer la derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve significative de la r\u00e9ouverture dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, o\u00f9 la population a largement acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des vaccins de grande qualit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nous restons d\u2019avis que la reprise \u00e9conomique mondiale demeure g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement sur la bonne voie. Les conditions sont plus difficiles pour les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, qui devraient n\u00e9anmoins conna\u00eetre une am\u00e9lioration semblable d\u2019ici un an ou deux, \u00e0 mesure que les vaccins deviennent plus accessibles et que les nouvelles vagues d\u2019infections sont surmont\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Le FMI pr\u00e9voit une expansion r\u00e9elle de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale de 6,0 % en 2021 et 4,4 % en 2022. Pour mettre les choses en perspective, ceci \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 un ajout de 15 500 milliards de dollars (soit neuf fois et demie le PIB du Canada) \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es. Cette conjoncture nous para\u00eet tr\u00e8s favorable aux actions. Comme le montre le tableau 1, il est attendu que les revenus et les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s que nous d\u00e9tenons en portefeuille augmentent plus rapidement que la moyenne du march\u00e9 au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es, alors que leurs actions se n\u00e9gocient encore \u00e0 des valorisations tr\u00e8s raisonnables de 10,7 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de 2022 dans le cas des actions canadiennes et 13,4 fois dans le cas des actions internationales.<\/p>\n

\n
Tableau 1<\/div>\n

Donn\u00e9es estimatives cl\u00e9s pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u00e9tenues dans les
portefeuilles d\u2019actions de LBA et leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Bas\u00e9 sur les cours boursiers au 30 juin 2021.
Sources : estimations consensuelles de Bloomberg et calculs de LBA, Fonds d\u2019actions canadiennes Letko Brosseau, Fonds d\u2019actions internationales Letko Brosseau.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Notre strat\u00e9gie d\u2019actions a surclass\u00e9 les march\u00e9s \u00e0 mesure que la reprise post\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e. Nous sommes davantage expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des secteurs qui profitent du rebond cyclique et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s que nous d\u00e9tenons en portefeuille offrent de solides perspectives de croissance. Fait important, nous avons \u00e9vit\u00e9 de payer un prix excessif pour cette croissance et nous continuons de privil\u00e9gier les titres offrant une valeur int\u00e9ressante.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 notre avis, les march\u00e9s boursiers procurent encore aux investisseurs une gamme d\u2019occasions d\u2019obtenir des rendements gratifiants \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n

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Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mentionn\u00e9es sont \u00e0 titre indicatif uniquement et ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une recommandation d\u2019achat ou de vente. Il ne faut pas supposer qu\u2019un investissement dans ces entreprises \u00e9tait ou serait rentable. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n

Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n

Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n

Les informations de MSCI ne peuvent \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es que pour votre usage interne, ne peuvent \u00eatre reproduites ou rediffus\u00e9es sous quelque forme que ce soit ni utilis\u00e9es comme base ou composante d\u2019instruments, produits ou indices financiers. Aucune des informations de MSCI ne vise \u00e0 fournir des conseils en mati\u00e8re de placements ou une recommandation de prendre (ou de s’abstenir de prendre) une d\u00e9cision d’investissement et ne doit pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9e comme telle. Les donn\u00e9es et analyses historiques ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une indication ou une garantie d\u2019une analyse, pr\u00e9vision ou pr\u00e9diction de performance. Les informations MSCI sont fournies \u00ab telles quelles \u00bb et leur utilisateur assume l’int\u00e9gralit\u00e9 des risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 leur utilisation. MSCI, chacune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es et toute autre personne impliqu\u00e9e ou li\u00e9e \u00e0 la compilation, au calcul ou \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d’informations MSCI (collectivement, les \u00ab parties MSCI \u00bb) d\u00e9clinent express\u00e9ment toute garantie (y compris, notamment, toute garantie d’originalit\u00e9, d’exactitude et d’exhaustivit\u00e9, respect des d\u00e9lais, non-contrefa\u00e7on, commercialisation et de convenance \u00e0 une fin particuli\u00e8re) en ce qui concerne ces informations. Sans limiter la port\u00e9e de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de, en aucun cas une partie MSCI ne peut \u00eatre tenue responsable d\u2019un dommage direct, indirect, sp\u00e9cial, accessoire, punitif, cons\u00e9cutif (y compris, sans limitation, perte de profits) ou de tout autre dommage. (www.msci.com).<\/p>\n

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Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e jusqu\u2019au 31 juillet, les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont enregistr\u00e9 un rendement global \u00e0 deux chiffres […]<\/p>\n

Lire la suite…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":7836,"template":"landing-perspective-wCSS.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-7829","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe point sur les portefeuilles - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e jusqu\u2019au 31 juillet, les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont enregistr\u00e9 un rendement global \u00e0 deux chiffres [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-08-06T17:11:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/FRA-1200-628-202108.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"23 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2021\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - 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