{"id":5506,"date":"2020-03-03T15:47:42","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T20:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&#038;p=5506"},"modified":"2020-11-16T14:18:37","modified_gmt":"2020-11-16T19:18:37","slug":"le-point-sur-leclosion-de-coronavirus","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-leclosion-de-coronavirus\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur l\u2019\u00e9closion de coronavirus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section bb_built=\u00a0\u00bb1&Prime; fullwidth=\u00a0\u00bbon\u00a0\u00bb specialty=\u00a0\u00bboff\u00a0\u00bb next_background_color=\u00a0\u00bb#000000&Prime; inner_width=\u00a0\u00bbauto\u00a0\u00bb inner_max_width=\u00a0\u00bbnone\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_fullwidth_header _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.0.2&Prime; title=\u00a0\u00bbLe point sur l\u2019\u00e9closion de coronavirus\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_image_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_image_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_image_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_image_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_shadow_horizontal_length=\u00a0\u00bbtext_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; 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header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime; text_letter_spacing=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb text_line_height=\u00a0\u00bb1.2em\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb2%|10%||10%\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"color: #3e2b57 !important;\">Sommaire:<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents, nous tenons \u00e0 vous faire part de nos r\u00e9flexions sur l\u2019impact possible du coronavirus sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s financiers.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Officiellement appel\u00e9 SARS-CoV-2 (le virus) et COVID-19 (la maladie), le coronavirus est apparu en Chine en d\u00e9cembre 2019 et s\u2019est r\u00e9pandu dans de nombreux pays qui doivent maintenant composer avec des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle r\u00e9gionale.<\/li>\n<li>Ce nouveau coronavirus pose des d\u00e9fis particuliers \u00e0 la riposte humaine.<\/li>\n<li>Notre \u00e9quipe responsable du secteur de la sant\u00e9 estiment deux aboutissements possibles \u00e0 cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie :\n<ul>\n<li>Toutes les personnes infect\u00e9es seront mises en confinement complet.<\/li>\n<li>Le virus se r\u00e9pandra jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que l\u2019humanit\u00e9 acqui\u00e8re une immunit\u00e9 collective.\n<ul>\n<li>La premi\u00e8re \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 n\u00e9cessite d\u2019identifier toutes les personnes infect\u00e9es et de les isoler efficacement des autres.<\/li>\n<li>La deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 survient au moment o\u00f9 le nombre de personnes ayant d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une immunit\u00e9 atteint un certain seuil et le virus ne trouve plus d\u2019h\u00f4tes \u00e0 infecter. Ceci suppose qu\u2019une grande partie de la population susceptible de contracter la maladie soit immunis\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<li>Pour acqu\u00e9rir cette immunit\u00e9, il faut avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 soit infect\u00e9 ou vaccin\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Pour ralentir la propagation du virus jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que nous disposions d\u2019un vaccin, il faudra prendre des mesures de distanciation sociale.<\/li>\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale pourrait \u00eatre plus perturb\u00e9e qu\u2019on l\u2019envisageait \u00e0 l\u2019origine. La dur\u00e9e, l\u2019ampleur et la gravit\u00e9 de ses impacts sont encore insaisissables, d\u2019o\u00f9 le risque beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 d\u2019un co\u00fbt \u00e9conomique r\u00e9el.<\/li>\n<li>Actuellement, la crainte et l\u2019incertitude entourant les impacts humains et \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie plombent fortement les march\u00e9s boursiers et les produits de base.<\/li>\n<li>Depuis la mi-janvier, les investisseurs vendent massivement les actions des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s expos\u00e9es \u00e0 la croissance mondiale pour se r\u00e9fugier dans les obligations et d\u2019autres abris jug\u00e9s s\u00fbrs comme l\u2019or et les actions des secteurs de la sant\u00e9 et des services publics.<\/li>\n<li>Nous reconnaissons que certaines cat\u00e9gories d\u2019actifs, comme les obligations \u00e0 long terme, les technologies, l\u2019immobilier et les infrastructures, ont profit\u00e9 d\u2019entr\u00e9es de capitaux, mais nous restons pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par l\u2019effervescence de leurs cours. Nous craignons que de telles d\u00e9cisions fassent courir un risque de perte permanente de capital lorsque les conditions se normaliseront sur les march\u00e9s financiers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Nous ne concluons pas qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession s\u2019annonce \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr. Nous pr\u00e9voyons qu\u2019un all\u00e9gement de la politique mon\u00e9taire et l\u2019adoption de mesures de relance budg\u00e9taire att\u00e9nueront une partie des d\u00e9g\u00e2ts et nous sommes convaincus que les facteurs structurels qui soutiennent la croissance \u00e0 long terme n\u2019ont pas chang\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.0.2&Prime; width=\u00a0\u00bb95%\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb|15px||15px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime;][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4&Prime; custom_padding__hover=\u00a0\u00bb|||\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb|||\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.0.2&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length=\u00a0\u00bbtext_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; 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header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime;]<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents, nous tenons \u00e0 vous faire part de nos r\u00e9flexions sur l\u2019impact possible du coronavirus sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s financiers.<\/p>\n<p>Officiellement appel\u00e9 SARS-CoV-2 (le virus) et COVID-19 (la maladie), le coronavirus est apparu en Chine en d\u00e9cembre 2019. Depuis lors, il s\u2019est r\u00e9pandu dans de nombreux pays qui doivent maintenant composer avec des \u00e9pid\u00e9mies \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle r\u00e9gionale. Les mesures de confinement radicales adopt\u00e9es par la Chine, notamment \u00e0 Wuhan et dans la province du Hubei, ont ralenti la progression de la maladie. Cependant, les caract\u00e9ristiques de ce virus le rendent tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 d\u00e9tecter \u00e0 temps pour prendre des mesures d\u2019isolement efficaces.<\/p>\n<p>Ce nouveau coronavirus pose des d\u00e9fis particuliers \u00e0 la riposte humaine. Sa p\u00e9riode d\u2019incubation peut durer jusqu\u2019\u00e0 14 jours (et m\u00eame 27 jours dans des cas extr\u00eames), il peut \u00eatre contagieux avant l\u2019apparition des sympt\u00f4mes, les personnes infect\u00e9es peuvent pr\u00e9senter des sympt\u00f4mes l\u00e9gers ou \u00eatre asymptomatiques, et les sympt\u00f4mes ressemblent beaucoup \u00e0 ceux de la grippe saisonni\u00e8re et du rhume. Ensemble, ces facteurs peuvent rendre le virus pratiquement invisible au d\u00e9pistage et \u00e0 la d\u00e9tection.<\/p>\n<p>Notre \u00e9quipe responsable du secteur de la sant\u00e9 a consacr\u00e9 beaucoup de temps \u00e0 comprendre ce virus et ses cons\u00e9quences. Actuellement, il y a deux aboutissements possibles \u00e0 cette \u00e9pid\u00e9mie : (1) toutes les personnes infect\u00e9es seront mises en confinement complet ou (2) le virus se r\u00e9pandra jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que l\u2019humanit\u00e9 acqui\u00e8re une immunit\u00e9 collective. La premi\u00e8re \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 n\u00e9cessite d\u2019identifier toutes les personnes infect\u00e9es et de les isoler efficacement des autres. L\u2019exp\u00e9rience chinoise montre qu\u2019il est difficile d\u2019y parvenir. La deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9ventualit\u00e9 survient au moment o\u00f9 le nombre de personnes ayant d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 une immunit\u00e9 atteint un certain seuil et le virus ne trouve plus d\u2019h\u00f4tes \u00e0 infecter. Ceci suppose qu\u2019une grande partie de la population susceptible de contracter la maladie soit immunis\u00e9e. Pour acqu\u00e9rir cette immunit\u00e9, il faut avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 soit infect\u00e9, soit vaccin\u00e9, la deuxi\u00e8me de ces possibilit\u00e9s \u00e9tant \u00e9videmment pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable.<\/p>\n<p>Le plus avanc\u00e9 des vaccins candidats contre le SARS-CoV-2 est en train d\u2019\u00eatre mis au point par Moderna Therapeutics, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 biotechnologique de Boston. Un premier lot est pr\u00eat pour l\u2019amorce des essais cliniques de phase 1 en collaboration avec les U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH). Il est remarquable qu\u2019il ne se soit \u00e9coul\u00e9 que 42 jours entre le s\u00e9quen\u00e7age du virus par les chercheurs chinois et la production des premi\u00e8res doses destin\u00e9es aux essais sur des sujets humains. Si ce candidat vaccin est efficace et que des ressources substantielles sont affect\u00e9es \u00e0 la mise en place d\u2019une capacit\u00e9 de fabrication, un vaccin pourrait \u00eatre disponible \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle en 2021. D\u2019ici l\u00e0, il importe de prendre des mesures pour ralentir la propagation du virus et en att\u00e9nuer les effets nocifs sur la sant\u00e9 des personnes infect\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p>Il y a des \u00e9volutions en cours dans le traitement de cette maladie. Le m\u00e9dicament le plus prometteur sur ce plan est le Remdesivir de Gilead. Ce compos\u00e9 antiviral est \u00e9tudi\u00e9 dans le cadre d\u2019essais cliniques en cours en Chine et aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Si le traitement est fructueux, il contribuera \u00e0 une forte r\u00e9duction des complications et des taux de mortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9s au COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>Pour ralentir la propagation du virus jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce que nous disposions d\u2019un vaccin, il faudra prendre des mesures de distanciation sociale, comme des quarantaines, des annulations d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements publics, des restrictions de voyage et des fermetures de ports. C\u2019est ce qui s\u2019est pass\u00e9 en Chine, o\u00f9 il est presque certain que l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique se sera fortement contract\u00e9e au premier trimestre. Si d\u2019autres pays devaient adopter des mesures semblables, l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale pourrait \u00eatre plus perturb\u00e9e qu\u2019on l\u2019envisageait \u00e0 l\u2019origine. Nous pouvons d\u2019ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 affirmer que notre pr\u00e9vision de croissance pour 2020 devra \u00eatre r\u00e9vis\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Par le pass\u00e9, lorsque l\u2019\u00e9conomie a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9stabilis\u00e9e par des \u00e9v\u00e9nements comme la crise de la dette europ\u00e9enne, le Brexit ou le conflit commercial sino-am\u00e9ricain, nous avions conclu que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale \u00e9tait fondamentalement solide et capable de surmonter ces obstacles. Le cas pr\u00e9sent est diff\u00e9rent : bien que l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie soit temporaire, la dur\u00e9e, l\u2019ampleur et la gravit\u00e9 de ses impacts sont encore insaisissables, d\u2019o\u00f9 le risque beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 d\u2019un co\u00fbt \u00e9conomique r\u00e9el.<\/p>\n<p>Actuellement, la crainte et l\u2019incertitude entourant les impacts humains et \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie plombent fortement les march\u00e9s boursiers et les produits de base. Depuis la mi-janvier, les investisseurs vendent massivement les actions des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s expos\u00e9es \u00e0 la croissance mondiale pour se r\u00e9fugier dans les obligations et d\u2019autres abris jug\u00e9s s\u00fbrs comme l\u2019or et les actions des secteurs de la sant\u00e9 et des services publics.<\/p>\n<p>Nous reconnaissons que certaines cat\u00e9gories d\u2019actifs, comme les obligations \u00e0 long terme, les technologies, l\u2019immobilier et les infrastructures, ont profit\u00e9 d\u2019entr\u00e9es de capitaux, mais nous restons pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par l\u2019effervescence de leurs cours. Nous ne jugeons pas appropri\u00e9 de sp\u00e9culer sur l\u2019ampleur possible des baisses de taux et nous consid\u00e9rons que les obligations \u00e0 long terme font courir un risque significatif de perte permanente de capital. De m\u00eame, nous sommes mal \u00e0 l\u2019aise avec l\u2019exub\u00e9rance qui se manifeste dans certains segments du secteur des technologies. Bien que certains investisseurs puissent trouver rassurant de se r\u00e9fugier dans ces actifs en p\u00e9riode de turbulence, nous craignons que de telles d\u00e9cisions fassent courir un risque de perte permanente de capital lorsque les conditions se normaliseront sur les march\u00e9s financiers.<\/p>\n<p>Nous ne concluons pas qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession s\u2019annonce \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr. Nous pr\u00e9voyons qu\u2019un all\u00e9gement de la politique mon\u00e9taire et l\u2019adoption de mesures de relance budg\u00e9taire att\u00e9nueront une partie des d\u00e9g\u00e2ts et nous sommes convaincus que les facteurs structurels qui soutiennent la croissance \u00e0 long terme n\u2019ont pas chang\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.0.2&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length=\u00a0\u00bbtext_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length=\u00a0\u00bbtext_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength=\u00a0\u00bbtext_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length=\u00a0\u00bblink_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length=\u00a0\u00bblink_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; 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header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length=\u00a0\u00bbheader_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length=\u00a0\u00bbheader_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength=\u00a0\u00bbheader_6_text_shadow_style,%91object Object%93&Prime; header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500&Prime;]<\/p>\n<p>\nLe pr\u00e9sent document a \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9 par Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s Inc. \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement et ne vise pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal ou des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doit pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9 comme tel.<\/p>\n<p>Lorsque les renseignements contenus dans le pr\u00e9sent document proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources dont ils proviennent sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme \u00e9tant fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations contenues dans le pr\u00e9sent rapport constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont sujettes \u00e0 changement sans pr\u00e9avis. Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs.<\/p>\n<p>Le pr\u00e9sent document peut contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, des incertitudes et des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances pouvant faire en sorte que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements, r\u00e9sultats, performances ou perspectives r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents, nous tenons \u00e0 vous faire part de nos r\u00e9flexions sur l\u2019impact possible du coronavirus sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s financiers. [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-leclosion-de-coronavirus\/\">Lire la suite&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":5505,"template":"landing-perspective-wCSS.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-5506","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le point sur l\u2019\u00e9closion de coronavirus - Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-leclosion-de-coronavirus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur l\u2019\u00e9closion de coronavirus - Letko, Brosseau &amp; Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents, nous tenons \u00e0 vous faire part de nos r\u00e9flexions sur l\u2019impact possible du coronavirus sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s financiers. 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