{"id":11128,"date":"2022-11-14T14:30:31","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T19:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&p=11128"},"modified":"2022-11-14T16:12:48","modified_gmt":"2022-11-14T21:12:48","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Novembre 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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 <\/p>\n

Le point sur les portefeuilles<\/h1>\n

Le 9 Novembre 2022<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Les craintes des investisseurs sur l\u2019orientation future des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et le spectre d\u2019une r\u00e9cession continuent d\u2019attiser la volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s financiers. La Banque du Canada et la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale des \u00c9tats-Unis ont tout r\u00e9cemment relev\u00e9 leurs taux directeurs de 50\u00a0pb et 75\u00a0pb respectivement. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude \u00e9conomique, on nous demande souvent si, selon nous, l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale tombera en r\u00e9cession et comment cela influe sur les d\u00e9cisions que nous prenons au niveau des portefeuilles. Les deux questions sont pertinentes; toutefois, nous d\u00e9conseillons de prendre des d\u00e9cisions de placement en fonction d\u2019un cadre binaire r\u00e9cession\/absence de r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n

L\u2019enjeu de la r\u00e9cession mondiale<\/h3>\n

Alors que le d\u00e9bat se poursuit sur la question de savoir si l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale est au bord du repli, nous jugeons pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 de conclure qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession mondiale synchronis\u00e9e se profile \u00e0 l\u2019horizon. Comme nous l\u2019expliquons en d\u00e9tail dans nos Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers<\/em><\/a> d\u2019octobre, certains pays ou r\u00e9gions r\u00e9sistent bien aux vents contraires, alors que d\u2019autres \u00e9prouvent des difficult\u00e9s en raison de divers facteurs internes et externes. La vigueur continue des d\u00e9penses de consommation aux \u00c9tats-Unis est en partie attribuable \u00e0 un march\u00e9 du travail robuste\u00a0: le taux de ch\u00f4mage se situe \u00e0 3,7\u00a0% et le nombre de postes vacants fr\u00f4le des sommets historiques (graphique\u00a01). Au Canada, la hausse des prix des produits de base \u2013 cons\u00e9quence de la guerre en Ukraine \u2013 continue d\u2019avantager le secteur des ressources naturelles et les exportations du pays. La balance commerciale canadienne est exc\u00e9dentaire, ce qui a donn\u00e9 un fort coup de pouce face au ralentissement d\u2019autres segments de l\u2019\u00e9conomie cette ann\u00e9e (graphique\u00a02). Dans l\u2019ensemble, la croissance mondiale ralentit, mais le risque de r\u00e9cession varie grandement d\u2019une r\u00e9gion et d\u2019un pays \u00e0 l\u2019autre.<\/p>\n

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Graphique 1<\/div>\n

Taux de ch\u00f4mage et offres
d’emploi aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Source : Bureau am\u00e9ricain des statistiques du travail et donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale des \u00c9tats-Unis – St. Louis.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Graphique 2<\/div>\n

Balance commerciale
du Canada<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Source : Statistique Canada. Commerce international de marchandises pour tous les pays et par les principaux partenaires commerciaux.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.17.6″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb width=\u00a0\u00bb95%\u00a0\u00bb custom_margin=\u00a0\u00bb||0px||false|false\u00a0\u00bb custom_padding=\u00a0\u00bb||0px||false|false\u00a0\u00bb custom_css_main_element=\u00a0\u00bbpadding-top:0px;\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_column type=\u00a0\u00bb4_4″ _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.16″ _module_preset=\u00a0\u00bbdefault\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb][et_pb_text _builder_version=\u00a0\u00bb4.17.6″ header_5_font_size=\u00a0\u00bb24px\u00a0\u00bb vertical_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0″ horizontal_offset_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0″ text_orientation=\u00a0\u00bbjustified\u00a0\u00bb z_index_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb500″ text_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb text_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb link_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ul_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb ol_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb quote_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_2_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_3_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_4_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_5_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_horizontal_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_vertical_length_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb header_6_text_shadow_blur_strength_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb1px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_horizontal_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_vertical_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_blur_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb40px\u00a0\u00bb box_shadow_spread_tablet=\u00a0\u00bb0px\u00a0\u00bb global_colors_info=\u00a0\u00bb{}\u00a0\u00bb]<\/p>\n

Nous ne croyons pas qu\u2019un sc\u00e9nario ind\u00fbment pessimiste soit sur le point de se r\u00e9aliser et estimons que la ligne de conduite la plus sage consiste \u00e0 garder le cap. Depuis 1970, les \u00c9tats-Unis ont connu huit r\u00e9cessions \u00e9conomiques de dur\u00e9es et de gravit\u00e9s variables. Durant cette p\u00e9riode, le cours de l\u2019indice S&P 500 a \u00e9t\u00e9 multipli\u00e9 par 40 et ses dividendes, par 20. Pour r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 long terme, il faut absolument rester sur le march\u00e9 durant les p\u00e9riodes d\u2019incertitude \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n

M\u00eame si nous privil\u00e9gions les occasions \u00e0 long terme, nous ne minimisons pas pour autant l\u2019importance de comprendre les d\u00e9fis \u00e0 court terme. Nous surveillons constamment les risques et d\u00e9terminons si des mesures s\u2019imposent. En fait, nous essayons activement de rep\u00e9rer les entreprises les mieux plac\u00e9es pour faire face et r\u00e9agir \u00e0 ces d\u00e9fis. Nous sommes confiants que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui composent nos portefeuilles peuvent surmonter les obstacles actuels.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9flexions finales \u00a0<\/h3>\n

Notre strat\u00e9gie de placement exige de la patience face \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 et un degr\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9 de diversification des portefeuilles par secteur d\u2019activit\u00e9 et par r\u00e9gion.\u00a0 De plus, notre portefeuille d\u2019actions se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 un ratio de valorisation tr\u00e8s attrayant, soit 9,2 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices estimatifs de 2023, et offre un taux de dividende de 3,6 %. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, notre portefeuille est structur\u00e9 de fa\u00e7on \u00e0 att\u00e9nuer l\u2019effet n\u00e9gatif de la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, avec une courte dur\u00e9e et une qualit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e du cr\u00e9dit. M\u00eame si nous n\u2019avons pas enti\u00e8rement prot\u00e9g\u00e9 nos portefeuilles contre le d\u00e9clin des prix des actifs financiers, nos strat\u00e9gies d\u2019actions, de titres \u00e0 revenu fixe et \u00e9quilibr\u00e9es continuent de surclasser nettement leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Nous demeurons confiants que votre capital est bien plac\u00e9 pour cro\u00eetre sur le moyen \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n

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\n

Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mentionn\u00e9es sont \u00e0 titre indicatif uniquement et ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une recommandation d\u2019achat ou de vente. Il ne faut pas supposer qu\u2019un investissement dans ces entreprises \u00e9tait ou serait rentable. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n

Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n

Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les craintes des investisseurs sur l\u2019orientation future des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et le spectre d\u2019une r\u00e9cession continuent d\u2019attiser la volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s financiers […]<\/p>\n

Lire la suite…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":11120,"template":"landing-perspective.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-11128","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Novembre 2022 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Novembre 2022 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les craintes des investisseurs sur l\u2019orientation future des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et le spectre d\u2019une r\u00e9cession continuent d\u2019attiser la volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s financiers [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-14T21:12:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/FRA-1200-628-202210.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-novembre-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles \u2013 Novembre 2022 - 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