{"id":10886,"date":"2022-08-15T16:20:37","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T20:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/?post_type=perspective&p=10886"},"modified":"2022-08-15T16:20:43","modified_gmt":"2022-08-15T20:20:43","slug":"le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Le point sur les portefeuilles – Ao\u00fbt 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

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 <\/p>\n

Le point sur les portefeuilles<\/h1>\n

Le 10 ao\u00fbt 2022<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont affich\u00e9 un rendement positif en juillet, apr\u00e8s un premier semestre difficile. Les risques g\u00e9opolitiques, l\u2019inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9e et le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire ont fait redouter une r\u00e9cession au deuxi\u00e8me semestre et en 2023. L\u2019inflation d\u00e9passant de loin la cible de 2\u00a0%, les banques centrales des pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s ont poursuivi r\u00e9solument le rel\u00e8vement de leurs taux directeurs. En juillet, la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale et la Banque du Canada ont hauss\u00e9 les leurs de 0,75\u00a0% et 1\u00a0% respectivement. De plus, la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne a entrepris de resserrer sa politique mon\u00e9taire pour la premi\u00e8re fois en 11\u00a0ans en faisant passer son taux directeur de -0,5\u00a0% \u00e0 0\u00a0%. Ces mesures visant \u00e0 diminuer l\u2019inflation ont sembl\u00e9 rassurer les investisseurs\u00a0: le S&P 500 a grimp\u00e9 de 8,5\u00a0% (en dollars canadiens), le S&P\/TSX a mont\u00e9 de 4,7\u00a0% et l\u2019indice MSCI Monde a gagn\u00e9 5,6\u00a0% pendant le mois de juillet. Ces hausses pourraient indiquer que l\u2019\u00e9ventualit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement escompt\u00e9e par le march\u00e9 au premier semestre. Comme nous le soulignons dans nos derni\u00e8res Perspectives sur la conjoncture \u00e9conomique et les march\u00e9s financiers<\/em><\/a>, la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession et sa gravit\u00e9 \u00e9ventuelle varient selon les \u00e9conomies, les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Canada \u00e9tant relativement bien plac\u00e9s pour affronter les difficult\u00e9s actuelles.<\/p>\n

Nos portefeuilles surclassent encore leurs indices respectifs depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Ceci s\u2019explique par une strat\u00e9gie de placement privil\u00e9giant les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui dominent leur march\u00e9, qui poss\u00e8dent un bilan assez solide pour surmonter les d\u00e9fis \u00e9conomiques et qui pr\u00e9sentent des valorisations attrayantes. Nous pr\u00e9f\u00e9rons ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 celles dont les titres sont trop sensibles \u00e0 la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ou se n\u00e9gocient nettement au-dessus de leur valeur intrins\u00e8que.<\/p>\n

Le risque d\u2019une vision \u00e0 court terme<\/h3>\n

\u00ab La bourse est un dispositif qui transf\u00e8re de l\u2019argent des investisseurs impatients aux investisseurs patients. \u00bb
<\/em>Warren Buffett<\/em><\/p>\n

En finance comportementale, on a beaucoup \u00e9crit sur la tendance des investisseurs \u00e0 revenir \u00e0 une vision \u00e0 court terme. Ceci se manifeste notamment par le d\u00e9sir insistant de tenter d\u2019anticiper le march\u00e9 au lieu de miser sur la croissance \u00e0 long terme en conservant ses placements. En p\u00e9riode de volatilit\u00e9 comme celle que nous traversons, il peut \u00eatre tentant de vendre ses placements risqu\u00e9s pour se r\u00e9fugier temporairement dans les liquidit\u00e9s. Cependant, pour r\u00e9ussir, cette tactique suppose que l\u2019on sache quand vendre et quand racheter, ce qui est tr\u00e8s difficile voire quasi-impossible \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser \u00e0 la perfection, puisque nul ne sait avec certitude \u00e0 quel moment le march\u00e9 atteint ses sommets et ses creux. Le graphique\u00a01 illustre ce qu\u2019il serait advenu d\u2019un placement hypoth\u00e9tique d\u2019un million de dollars si on avait rat\u00e9 les 20, 50, 100 et 200\u00a0meilleures s\u00e9ances de bourse durant la p\u00e9riode de 20\u00a0ans termin\u00e9e le 31\u00a0juillet 2022. L\u2019investisseur qui aurait conserv\u00e9 ses placements pendant toute cette p\u00e9riode aurait obtenu un rendement annualis\u00e9 de 7,9\u00a0%, contre seulement 1,2\u00a0% pour celui qui aurait rat\u00e9 les 20\u00a0meilleurs jours.<\/p>\n

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\n
Graphique 1<\/div>\n

Rester investi
Valeur hypoth\u00e9tique d\u2019un placement de 1 M $ dans le S&P 500 d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2002 \u00e0 juillet 2022<\/h4>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Bas\u00e9 sur les cours boursiers au 31 juillet\u00a02022. Sources : Estimations consensuelles de donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res et analyse de FactSet (www.factset.com) et calculs de Letko Brosseau.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Le rendement aurait m\u00eame \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9gatif en ratant les 50, 100 et 200\u00a0meilleurs jours. Les investisseurs qui liquident leur portefeuille, puis tentent de r\u00e9int\u00e9grer le march\u00e9 au bon moment risquent de passer \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 des gains les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Pour r\u00e9ussir \u00e0 long terme, il faut absolument rester sur le march\u00e9 durant les phases haussi\u00e8res et baissi\u00e8res, plut\u00f4t que de chercher \u00e0 anticiper ces cycles.<\/p>\n

Les portefeuilles affichant une valorisation plus faible tendent \u00e0 mieux prot\u00e9ger contre le ralentissement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie<\/h3>\n

Nos analyses montrent que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dont les multiples de capitalisation des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sont moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s font relativement meilleure figure que les autres en p\u00e9riode de ralentissement de la croissance du PIB. Bien que l\u2019ampleur de leur surperformance ait vari\u00e9 au fil du temps, les actions pr\u00e9sentant une faible valorisation ont habituellement offert une meilleure protection contre la baisse des cours durant la majorit\u00e9 des phases de ralentissement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie depuis la Deuxi\u00e8me Guerre mondiale. Or, en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s que nous d\u00e9tenons affichent une plus faible valorisation et un taux de dividende plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que leur march\u00e9 sous-jacent (Tableau\u00a01).<\/p>\n

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Tableau 1<\/div>\n

Ratios cl\u00e9s pr\u00e9vus des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des portefeuilles d\u2019actions de Letko Brosseau
et de leurs indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence
\"\"<\/h4>\n
\n

Bas\u00e9 sur les cours boursiers au 31 juillet\u00a02022. Sources : Estimations consensuelles de donn\u00e9es financi\u00e8res et analyse de FactSet (www.factset.com) et calculs de Letko Brosseau, Letko Brosseau Fonds d\u2019actions canadiennes et Letko Brosseau Fonds d\u2019actions internationales.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Les ralentissements ant\u00e9rieurs de l\u2019\u00e9conomie ont \u00e9t\u00e9 attribu\u00e9s \u00e0 diverses causes, dont notamment une forte inflation et une hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Nos portefeuilles compos\u00e9s de chefs de file du march\u00e9 sont bien plac\u00e9s pour composer avec l\u2019un et l\u2019autre de ces facteurs. Relativement \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, nous \u00e9vitons d\u2019investir dans des titres sur\u00e9valu\u00e9s dont le cours suppose souvent des cibles de croissance intenables; l\u2019inflation rendant ces cibles plus difficiles \u00e0 atteindre, les actions sur\u00e9valu\u00e9es subissent une plus forte pression \u00e0 la baisse. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, la mont\u00e9e des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat fait augmenter les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt. Nous croyons que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dans nos portefeuilles ont un bilan assez robuste pour absorber cette hausse des co\u00fbts d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et savent affecter efficacement leurs capitaux exc\u00e9dentaires.<\/p>\n

R\u00e9flexions finales<\/h3>\n

\u00c0 long terme, les investisseurs ont toujours avantage \u00e0 se montrer patients face \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9, puisque la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un r\u00e9sultat positif augmente \u00e0 mesure que l\u2019horizon de placement s\u2019allonge. C\u2019est dans cette optique que nous nous effor\u00e7ons de b\u00e2tir nos portefeuilles, en consid\u00e9rant les fluctuations \u00e0 court terme du march\u00e9 comme des occasions d\u2019\u00e9toffer nos positions dans des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s aux fondamentaux solides qui devraient \u00e0 notre avis produire de bons r\u00e9sultats \u00e0 la longue.<\/p>\n

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Les informations et opinions contenues dans les pr\u00e9sentes sont fournies \u00e0 titre indicatif seulement, sont sujettes \u00e0 changement et ne visent pas \u00e0 fournir des conseils d\u2019ordre comptable, juridique ou fiscal, ni des recommandations en mati\u00e8re de placement, et ne doivent pas \u00eatre utilis\u00e9es comme tel. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s mentionn\u00e9es sont \u00e0 titre indicatif uniquement et ne sont pas consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme une recommandation d\u2019achat ou de vente. Il ne faut pas supposer qu\u2019un investissement dans ces entreprises \u00e9tait ou serait rentable. \u00c0 moins d\u2019indication contraire, les renseignements sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s aux dates indiqu\u00e9es. Bien que ces renseignements soient consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme exacts \u00e0 la date o\u00f9 ils ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9par\u00e9s, Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s Inc. ne peut garantir qu\u2019ils sont exacts, complets et \u00e0 jour en tout temps.<\/p>\n

Lorsque les renseignements proviennent ou sont d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de sources externes, les sources sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme fiables, mais la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 n\u2019en a pas effectu\u00e9 une v\u00e9rification ind\u00e9pendante. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude, \u00e0 l\u2019exhaustivit\u00e9 ou \u00e0 la fiabilit\u00e9 de ces renseignements. Les opinions ou estimations pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es constituent notre jugement \u00e0 cette date et sont modifiables sans pr\u00e9avis.<\/p>\n

Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne sont pas garants des r\u00e9sultats futurs. Tous les placements pr\u00e9sentent un risque de perte et il n\u2019y a aucune garantie que les avantages exprim\u00e9s seront atteints ou r\u00e9alis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les renseignements pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ne constituent pas une offre ou une sollicitation d\u2019achat ou de vente de titres. Ils ne tiennent pas compte des objectifs, strat\u00e9gies, statuts fiscaux ou horizons d\u2019investissement particuliers des investisseurs. Aucune repr\u00e9sentation ou garantie n\u2019est fournie quant \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude des renseignements ni quant \u00e0 la responsabilit\u00e9 pour des d\u00e9cisions fond\u00e9es sur ceux-ci.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9sentes peuvent contenir certaines d\u00e9clarations prospectives qui refl\u00e8tent nos attentes actuelles ou pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements futurs concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les changements du march\u00e9 et ses tendances. De par leur nature, les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs sont assujettis, entre autres, \u00e0 des risques, \u00e0 des incertitudes et \u00e0 des hypoth\u00e8ses concernant les devises, la croissance \u00e9conomique, les conditions actuelles et pr\u00e9vues et d\u2019autres facteurs appropri\u00e9s dans les circonstances qui peuvent faire en sorte que les performances, perspectives, \u00e9v\u00e9nements ou r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els diff\u00e8rent sensiblement de ceux exprim\u00e9s dans, ou sous-entendus par, lesdits \u00e9nonc\u00e9s. Les lecteurs sont avis\u00e9s de ne pas se fier ind\u00fbment \u00e0 ces \u00e9nonc\u00e9s prospectifs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

[\/et_pb_toggle][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont affich\u00e9 un rendement positif en juillet, apr\u00e8s un premier semestre difficile […]<\/p>\n

Lire la suite…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":10872,"template":"landing-perspective.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":""},"perspectives":[46],"class_list":["post-10886","perspective","type-perspective","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","perspectives-strategie-dinvestissement"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe point sur les portefeuilles - Ao\u00fbt 2022 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - Ao\u00fbt 2022 - Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux ont affich\u00e9 un rendement positif en juillet, apr\u00e8s un premier semestre difficile [...]Lire la suite...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/fr\/perspective\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Letko, Brosseau & Associ\u00e9s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-08-15T20:20:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lba.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ENG-1200-628-202208.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"628\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lba.ca\\\/fr\\\/perspective\\\/le-point-sur-les-portefeuilles-aout-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Le point sur les portefeuilles - 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